fix(insights): remove the trajectory continuation tile from metric pages

The short-horizon trajectory tile read as a wall of text with no clear value
on the metric pages. Drop it from the weight page and the shared HealthKit
metric page (the opt-in forecast slot is removed entirely, not left dead), and
delete the now-orphaned tile + fan components. The trajectory engine stays for
the Coach narrative; only the metric-page surfacing is removed.

src/app/insights/weight/page.tsx

@@ -18,7 +18,6 @@ import { MetricCorrelationCard } from "@/components/insights/metric-correlation-
 import { MeasurementDiversityNudge } from "@/components/insights/measurement-diversity-nudge";
 import { MetricTargetSummary } from "@/components/insights/metric-target-summary";
 import { SubPageShell } from "@/components/insights/sub-page-shell";
-import { TrajectoryForecastCard } from "@/components/insights/derived/trajectory-forecast-card";
 import { buildWeightBandsFromHeight } from "@/lib/analytics/value-bands";
 
 /**
@@ -115,14 +114,6 @@ export default function InsightsGewichtPage() {
 
       <MetricTargetSummary slug="weight" />
 
-      <TrajectoryForecastCard
-        type="WEIGHT"
-        unit="kg"
-        color="#bd93f9"
-        enabled={!isEmpty}
-        compact
-      />
-
       {/* v1.12.0 — Weight owns the weight × weekday correlation (relocated
           off the overview onto its metric page). */}
       <MetricCorrelationCard slug="weight" />

src/components/insights/derived/trajectory-fan.tsx

@@ -1,79 +0,0 @@
-"use client";
-
-import {
-  ResponsiveContainer,
-  ComposedChart,
-  Area,
-  Line,
-  XAxis,
-  YAxis,
-  ReferenceLine,
-} from "recharts";
-
-/**
- * v1.12.1 — the Recharts fan band of the trajectory forecast card,
- * split into its own module so it can be `next/dynamic`-deferred.
- *
- * `TrajectoryForecastCard` is mounted by the shared `HealthKitMetricPage`
- * on every trajectory-eligible metric page; before this split it pulled
- * Recharts into the page's initial chunk eagerly (the main metric chart
- * is already deferred via `HealthChartDynamic`). Isolating the only
- * Recharts-touching subtree here lets the card chrome render without the
- * chart library and lazy-load this chunk only when there's a projection
- * to draw — keeping the chart visually identical (same ComposedChart /
- * Area / Line / ReferenceLine geometry, same `isAnimationActive={false}`).
- */
-
-export interface TrajectoryFanPoint {
-  date: string;
-  projected: number;
-  /** Stacked transparent base (= bandLow). */
-  base: number;
-  /** Shaded band height (= bandHigh − bandLow). */
-  range: number;
-}
-
-export function TrajectoryFan({
-  points,
-  color,
-}: {
-  points: TrajectoryFanPoint[];
-  color: string;
-}) {
-  return (
-    <ResponsiveContainer width="100%" height="100%">
-      <ComposedChart
-        data={points}
-        margin={{ top: 4, right: 4, bottom: 0, left: 0 }}
-      >
-        <XAxis dataKey="date" hide />
-        <YAxis domain={["auto", "auto"]} hide />
-        <Area
-          dataKey="base"
-          stackId="band"
-          stroke="none"
-          fill="none"
-          isAnimationActive={false}
-        />
-        <Area
-          dataKey="range"
-          stackId="band"
-          stroke="none"
-          fill={color}
-          fillOpacity={0.15}
-          isAnimationActive={false}
-        />
-        <Line
-          dataKey="projected"
-          type="monotone"
-          stroke={color}
-          strokeWidth={2}
-          strokeDasharray="4 3"
-          dot={false}
-          isAnimationActive={false}
-        />
-        <ReferenceLine x="now" stroke="var(--border)" strokeDasharray="2 2" />
-      </ComposedChart>
-    </ResponsiveContainer>
-  );
-}

src/components/insights/derived/trajectory-forecast-card.tsx

@@ -1,331 +0,0 @@
-"use client";
-
-import { useMemo } from "react";
-import dynamic from "next/dynamic";
-import { TrendingUp, TrendingDown, Minus } from "lucide-react";
-
-import { useTranslations } from "@/lib/i18n/context";
-import { cn } from "@/lib/utils";
-import { LearningGate } from "@/components/ui/learning-gate";
-import { CoverageMeter } from "@/components/insights/derived/coverage-meter";
-import { ProvenanceExplainer } from "@/components/insights/derived/provenance-explainer";
-import { METRIC_PROVENANCE } from "@/components/insights/derived/standards";
-import { useDerivedMetric } from "@/components/insights/derived/use-derived-metric";
-
-// v1.12.1 — defer the Recharts fan band so the card chrome (and the whole
-// HealthKit metric page that always mounts this card on a trajectory-
-// eligible type) no longer pulls Recharts into the initial chunk. The
-// loading shell is a plain box that fills the same fixed-height band the
-// chart paints, so there is no layout shift when the chunk arrives.
-const TrajectoryFanDynamic = dynamic(
-  () =>
-    import("@/components/insights/derived/trajectory-fan").then((mod) => ({
-      default: mod.TrajectoryFan,
-    })),
-  {
-    ssr: false,
-    loading: () => <div className="bg-muted/20 h-full w-full rounded" />,
-  },
-);
-// Type-only — the compute payload never drags the server graph into the
-// client bundle (the v1.9.0 lesson, mirrored across the derived surfaces).
-import type { TrajectoryValue } from "@/lib/insights/derived/trajectory";
-import type { DerivedProvenance } from "@/lib/insights/derived/types";
-
-/**
- * v1.11.0 (Epic B, Pillar 3) — the short-horizon projection card on the
- * metric detail page.
- *
- * Surfaces the deterministic `TRAJECTORY` derived metric as a small band
- * chart: the recent observed line, then the projected line (dashed) with a
- * widening prediction-interval fan. The fan VISIBLY widens with the horizon
- * — that is the uncertainty communication, no words needed. The number is
- * computed server-side; this card only draws it. It is explicitly labelled
- * a PROJECTION ("if this pattern continues"), never a prediction or a dated
- * event, and the cited method (OLS + prediction interval) rides the ⓘ
- * provenance affordance.
- *
- * Below the engine's R² / history / staleness floor the engine returns
- * `insufficient`, and the card renders the same calm "not enough of a trend
- * to project yet" + coverage state every derived surface uses — never a weak
- * line, never a blank.
- *
- * The card mounts as a sibling beneath the main metric chart (mirroring
- * `MetricStatusCard`), so the main chart's visual identity is untouched.
- */
-
-const TRAJECTORY_METRIC = "TRAJECTORY";
-
-/**
- * Mirror of `TRAJECTORY_MIN_HISTORY_DAYS` (`src/lib/insights/derived/trajectory.ts`).
- * Re-declared as a client-side literal rather than value-imported because the
- * engine module pulls the rollup/baseline server graph in at its top level —
- * importing the constant would drag that graph into the client bundle (the same
- * reason `TrajectoryValue` is a type-only import). Keep this in lockstep with
- * the engine; the unit test pins both at 14.
- */
-const TRAJECTORY_MIN_HISTORY_DAYS = 14;
-
-/** A single value-scale used to render stored values in the display unit. */
-function scaled(value: number, scale: number): number {
-  return value * scale;
-}
-
-interface TrajectoryForecastCardProps {
-  /** The MeasurementType to project (the page's canonical type). */
-  type: string;
-  /** Display unit suffix (e.g. "kg"). */
-  unit?: string;
-  /** Display scale folded into every rendered value (defaults to 1). */
-  valueScale?: number;
-  /** Canonical chart colour for the metric's line. */
-  color?: string;
-  /** Gate the underlying derived read (e.g. on the auth/empty flag). */
-  enabled?: boolean;
-  /**
-   * v1.12.0 — density by render context. Sub-pages pass `compact` so the
-   * card sheds the `min-h-48` floor + drops to a shorter chart and a tighter
-   * no-trend state (a too-tall "1 of 1" empty band was the maintainer flag).
-   * The Insights OVERVIEW grid omits it so the tile KEEPS its current size
-   * for grid symmetry — the default is the unchanged, roomier geometry.
-   */
-  compact?: boolean;
-  className?: string;
-}
-
-/** The provenance ⓘ explainer for the projection, wired from the map. */
-function TrajectoryProvenance({
-  provenance,
-}: {
-  provenance: DerivedProvenance;
-}) {
-  const { t } = useTranslations();
-  const meta = METRIC_PROVENANCE.TRAJECTORY;
-  const method = (
-    <>
-      {meta.caveatKey ? (
-        <span className="text-warning block font-medium">
-          {t(meta.caveatKey)}
-        </span>
-      ) : null}
-      {t(meta.methodKey)}
-    </>
-  );
-  return (
-    <ProvenanceExplainer
-      provenance={provenance}
-      method={method}
-      standard={meta.standard}
-    />
-  );
-}
-
-/** Card shell — uppercase label + provenance affordance + body children. */
-function CardShell({
-  provenance,
-  compact = false,
-  children,
-}: {
-  provenance?: DerivedProvenance;
-  compact?: boolean;
-  children: React.ReactNode;
-}) {
-  const { t } = useTranslations();
-  return (
-    <div
-      data-slot="trajectory-forecast-card"
-      data-density={compact ? "compact" : "default"}
-      className={cn(
-        "bg-card border-border flex w-full min-w-0 flex-col gap-2 rounded-xl border",
-        // Overview keeps the roomy `min-h-48` + `p-4 md:p-6` geometry for grid
-        // symmetry; sub-pages drop the height floor and tighten the padding so
-        // the no-trend state stops opening a tall empty band.
-        compact ? "p-4" : "min-h-48 p-4 md:p-6",
-      )}
-    >
-      <div className="flex items-center justify-between gap-2">
-        <span className="text-muted-foreground truncate text-xs font-medium tracking-wide uppercase">
-          {t("insights.derived.trajectory.cardTitle")}
-        </span>
-        {provenance ? <TrajectoryProvenance provenance={provenance} /> : null}
-      </div>
-      {children}
-    </div>
-  );
-}
-
-/** CLS-safe skeleton matching the resolved card geometry. */
-function CardSkeleton({ compact = false }: { compact?: boolean }) {
-  return (
-    <div
-      data-slot="trajectory-forecast-card-skeleton"
-      aria-hidden="true"
-      className={cn(
-        "bg-card border-border flex w-full min-w-0 flex-col gap-2 rounded-xl border",
-        compact ? "p-4" : "min-h-48 p-4 md:p-6",
-      )}
-    >
-      <div className="flex h-11 items-center justify-between gap-2">
-        <div className="bg-muted/40 h-3 w-32 rounded" />
-        <div className="bg-muted/40 h-5 w-5 rounded-full" />
-      </div>
-      <div
-        className={cn("bg-muted/40 w-full rounded", compact ? "h-12" : "h-24")}
-      />
-    </div>
-  );
-}
-
-export function TrajectoryForecastCard({
-  type,
-  unit,
-  valueScale = 1,
-  color = "var(--chart-1)",
-  enabled = true,
-  compact = false,
-  className,
-}: TrajectoryForecastCardProps) {
-  const { t } = useTranslations();
-  const { data } = useDerivedMetric<TrajectoryValue>(TRAJECTORY_METRIC, {
-    type,
-    enabled,
-  });
-
-  // Assemble the band chart series: the projected fan only (the engine
-  // returns the projection points; the recent observed value anchors it as
-  // the dashed line's left edge). Each projection point carries the band
-  // `low`/`base` (= bandLow) + `range` (= bandHigh − bandLow) so a stacked
-  // Area renders the fan, plus the projected line.
-  const chart = useMemo(() => {
-    if (!data || data.status !== "ok" || !data.value) return null;
-    const v = data.value;
-    const points = v.projection.map((p) => ({
-      date: p.date,
-      projected: scaled(p.projected, valueScale),
-      base: scaled(p.bandLow, valueScale),
-      range: scaled(p.bandHigh - p.bandLow, valueScale),
-    }));
-    // Anchor the fan at the last observed value so the dashed line departs
-    // from "today" rather than floating.
-    const anchor = {
-      date: "now",
-      projected: scaled(v.lastValue, valueScale),
-      base: scaled(v.lastValue, valueScale),
-      range: 0,
-    };
-    return {
-      points: [anchor, ...points],
-      lastValue: scaled(v.lastValue, valueScale),
-    };
-  }, [data, valueScale]);
-
-  if (!data) {
-    return (
-      <div className={className}>
-        <CardSkeleton compact={compact} />
-      </div>
-    );
-  }
-
-  // Below the fit / history / staleness floor — calm "no trend to project"
-  // state + coverage, never a weak line.
-  if (data.status === "insufficient" || !chart) {
-    // v1.12.0 — surface how much history is still missing before a projection
-    // can appear, drawn from the same coverage envelope the meter reads. The
-    // gating floor is distinct-in-window days, so the hint only shows when the
-    // shortfall is a history-depth one (the dominant insufficient cause); when
-    // the shortfall is fit quality (enough days, weak R²) the days are already
-    // there and the generic copy stands on its own.
-    const daysNeeded = Math.max(
-      0,
-      TRAJECTORY_MIN_HISTORY_DAYS - Math.floor(data.coverage.historyDays),
-    );
-    return (
-      <div className={className}>
-        <CardShell provenance={data.provenance} compact={compact}>
-          <LearningGate
-            compact={compact}
-            bodySlot="trajectory-insufficient"
-            message={t("insights.derived.trajectory.insufficient")}
-            caveat={
-              daysNeeded > 0
-                ? t("insights.derived.trajectory.daysNeeded", {
-                    count: daysNeeded,
-                  })
-                : undefined
-            }
-          />
-          <CoverageMeter coverage={data.coverage} />
-        </CardShell>
-      </div>
-    );
-  }
-
-  const v = data.value!;
-  const DirectionIcon =
-    v.direction === "up"
-      ? TrendingUp
-      : v.direction === "down"
-        ? TrendingDown
-        : Minus;
-  const last = chart.points[chart.points.length - 1];
-  const projectedLow = last.base;
-  const projectedHigh = last.base + last.range;
-
-  // The headline is conditional by construction — "if this pattern
-  // continues" — and quotes the RANGE, never a single certain number.
-  const rangeText = t("insights.derived.trajectory.range", {
-    low: Math.round(projectedLow * 10) / 10,
-    high: Math.round(projectedHigh * 10) / 10,
-    unit: unit ?? "",
-    days: v.horizonDays,
-  });
-
-  return (
-    <div className={className}>
-      <CardShell provenance={data.provenance} compact={compact}>
-        <div className="flex items-start gap-2">
-          <DirectionIcon
-            className="text-muted-foreground mt-0.5 h-4 w-4 shrink-0"
-            aria-hidden="true"
-          />
-          <div className="min-w-0 space-y-1">
-            <p
-              className="text-foreground text-sm font-medium"
-              data-slot="trajectory-headline"
-            >
-              {t("insights.derived.trajectory.headline", {
-                days: v.horizonDays,
-              })}
-            </p>
-            <p
-              className="text-muted-foreground text-xs leading-snug"
-              data-slot="trajectory-range"
-            >
-              {rangeText}
-            </p>
-          </div>
-        </div>
-
-        {/* The fan: a stacked transparent base + a shaded range Area, then
-            the dashed projected line. The shaded band visibly widens toward
-            the horizon — the uncertainty signal. */}
-        <div
-          className={cn("w-full", compact ? "h-20" : "h-28")}
-          data-slot="trajectory-chart"
-        >
-          <TrajectoryFanDynamic points={chart.points} color={color} />
-        </div>
-
-        {/* The mandatory conditional caveat — never a certainty, never a
-            dated clinical event. */}
-        <p
-          className={cn("text-muted-foreground text-xs leading-snug")}
-          data-slot="trajectory-caveat"
-        >
-          {t("insights.derived.trajectory.caveat")}
-        </p>
-      </CardShell>
-    </div>
-  );
-}

src/components/insights/healthkit-metric-page.tsx

@@ -19,8 +19,6 @@ import { Skeleton } from "@/components/ui/skeleton";
 import { ChartSkeleton } from "@/components/charts/chart-skeleton";
 import { HealthChartDynamic } from "@/components/charts/health-chart-dynamic";
 import { MetricStatusCard } from "@/components/insights/metric-status-card";
-import { TrajectoryForecastCard } from "@/components/insights/derived/trajectory-forecast-card";
-import { isTrajectoryType } from "@/lib/insights/derived/registry";
 import { MetricEmptyState } from "@/components/insights/metric-empty-state";
 import { MetricStatStrip } from "@/components/insights/metric-stat-strip";
 import { CoachReadStrip } from "@/components/insights/derived/coach-read-strip";
@@ -150,17 +148,6 @@ export interface HealthKitMetricPageProps {
    * is a compile error, not a silent 422.
    */
   statusMetric?: MetricStatusMetricId;
-  /**
-   * v1.11.0 (Epic B, Pillar 3) — when `true`, mounts the short-horizon
-   * `<TrajectoryForecastCard>` beneath the chart for this metric (the page's
-   * `measurementType`). Opt-in: a page sets it only for a slow daily
-   * physiological series where a conservative 7–14-day OLS projection reads
-   * honestly. The card is only rendered on the data-bearing branch and only
-   * when the type is a supported trajectory metric; the engine still gates
-   * on R² / history / staleness, so a flat or noisy series shows the calm
-   * "no trend to project yet" state rather than a line.
-   */
-  forecast?: boolean;
   /**
    * v1.16.16 — decimal precision for the stat-strip values. Defaults to the
    * strip's own default (1). Blood glucose passes 0 for mg/dL (integer
@@ -203,7 +190,6 @@ export function HealthKitMetricPage({
   targetSummarySlug,
   statusMetric,
   statIcon,
-  forecast = false,
   statFractionDigits,
   statMedianLabel,
   afterChart,
@@ -397,16 +383,6 @@ export function HealthKitMetricPage({
       {/* v1.17.0 — page-specific extra block (blood glucose: the clinical
           panel). Mounted on the data-bearing branch only. */}
       {afterChart}
-      {forecast && isTrajectoryType(measurementType) ? (
-        <TrajectoryForecastCard
-          type={measurementType}
-          unit={yAxisUnit ?? unit}
-          valueScale={valueScale}
-          color={color}
-          enabled={!isEmpty}
-          compact
-        />
-      ) : null}
       {/* v1.12.0 — Einschätzung is the last block on the canonical
           metric-detail spine. */}
       {statusMetric ? (