feat(insights): pair a mood tag against next-day resting heart rate and HRV

The tag crosstab already ran a with-versus-without Welch test per structured
tag, with a D to D+1 pairing mode whose stated example was an evening tag
against next-day recovery. It only ever had one channel at that lag, and a
recovery score is a wearable composite plenty of accounts never record. The
rated-factor board next to it has tested next-day resting heart rate and HRV
since v1.14.0, but a rated factor is a continuous score, so a binary tag never
reached either vital.

Add both to the tag map. Same engine, same per-side day floors, same
Benjamini-Hochberg family, same card. The fetch filter derives from the map, so
the channels come along without a second query.

The delta read-out goes neutral to match the rated-factor board: with resting
heart rate on the board, a positive delta is worse on one row and better on the
next, and a green plus sign would claim a verdict the association cannot carry.

Refs #616

messages/de.json

@@ -3432,9 +3432,13 @@
         "metricActiveEnergy": "Aktive Energie",
         "metricSleepDuration": "Schlaf",
         "metricNextDayRecovery": "Erholung am Folgetag",
+        "metricNextDayRestingHr": "Ruhepuls am Folgetag",
+        "metricNextDayHrv": "Herzfrequenzvariabilität am Folgetag",
         "unitHours": "Std.",
         "unitKcal": "kcal",
         "unitScore": "Pkt.",
+        "unitBpm": "bpm",
+        "unitMs": "ms",
         "detailSameDay": "Durchschnittlich {withAvg} {unit} an den {withDays} Tagen mit diesem Tag gegenüber {withoutAvg} {unit} ohne.",
         "detailNextDay": "Durchschnittlich {withAvg} {unit} am Tag nach den {withDays} Tagen mit diesem Tag gegenüber {withoutAvg} {unit} sonst."
       },

messages/en.json

@@ -3432,9 +3432,13 @@
         "metricActiveEnergy": "Active energy",
         "metricSleepDuration": "Sleep",
         "metricNextDayRecovery": "Next-day recovery",
+        "metricNextDayRestingHr": "Next-day resting heart rate",
+        "metricNextDayHrv": "Next-day heart-rate variability",
         "unitHours": "h",
         "unitKcal": "kcal",
         "unitScore": "pts",
+        "unitBpm": "bpm",
+        "unitMs": "ms",
         "detailSameDay": "Averages {withAvg} {unit} on the {withDays} days you tagged this vs {withoutAvg} {unit} without it.",
         "detailNextDay": "Averages {withAvg} {unit} the day after the {withDays} days you tagged this vs {withoutAvg} {unit} otherwise."
       },

messages/es.json

@@ -3432,9 +3432,13 @@
         "metricActiveEnergy": "Energía activa",
         "metricSleepDuration": "Sueño",
         "metricNextDayRecovery": "Recuperación al día siguiente",
+        "metricNextDayRestingHr": "Frecuencia cardíaca en reposo al día siguiente",
+        "metricNextDayHrv": "Variabilidad de la frecuencia cardíaca al día siguiente",
         "unitHours": "h",
         "unitKcal": "kcal",
         "unitScore": "pts",
+        "unitBpm": "ppm",
+        "unitMs": "ms",
         "detailSameDay": "Promedia {withAvg} {unit} en los {withDays} días que lo etiquetaste frente a {withoutAvg} {unit} sin él.",
         "detailNextDay": "Promedia {withAvg} {unit} el día después de los {withDays} días que lo etiquetaste frente a {withoutAvg} {unit} el resto."
       },

messages/fr.json

@@ -3432,9 +3432,13 @@
         "metricActiveEnergy": "Énergie active",
         "metricSleepDuration": "Sommeil",
         "metricNextDayRecovery": "Récupération le lendemain",
+        "metricNextDayRestingHr": "Fréquence cardiaque au repos le lendemain",
+        "metricNextDayHrv": "Variabilité de la fréquence cardiaque le lendemain",
         "unitHours": "h",
         "unitKcal": "kcal",
         "unitScore": "pts",
+        "unitBpm": "bpm",
+        "unitMs": "ms",
         "detailSameDay": "En moyenne {withAvg} {unit} les {withDays} jours avec ce tag contre {withoutAvg} {unit} sans.",
         "detailNextDay": "En moyenne {withAvg} {unit} le lendemain des {withDays} jours avec ce tag contre {withoutAvg} {unit} sinon."
       },

messages/it.json

@@ -3432,9 +3432,13 @@
         "metricActiveEnergy": "Energia attiva",
         "metricSleepDuration": "Sonno",
         "metricNextDayRecovery": "Recupero il giorno dopo",
+        "metricNextDayRestingHr": "Frequenza cardiaca a riposo il giorno dopo",
+        "metricNextDayHrv": "Variabilità della frequenza cardiaca il giorno dopo",
         "unitHours": "h",
         "unitKcal": "kcal",
         "unitScore": "pt",
+        "unitBpm": "bpm",
+        "unitMs": "ms",
         "detailSameDay": "In media {withAvg} {unit} nei {withDays} giorni con questo tag contro {withoutAvg} {unit} senza.",
         "detailNextDay": "In media {withAvg} {unit} il giorno dopo i {withDays} giorni con questo tag contro {withoutAvg} {unit} altrimenti."
       },

messages/pl.json

@@ -3432,9 +3432,13 @@
         "metricActiveEnergy": "Aktywna energia",
         "metricSleepDuration": "Sen",
         "metricNextDayRecovery": "Regeneracja następnego dnia",
+        "metricNextDayRestingHr": "Tętno spoczynkowe następnego dnia",
+        "metricNextDayHrv": "Zmienność rytmu serca następnego dnia",
         "unitHours": "godz.",
         "unitKcal": "kcal",
         "unitScore": "pkt",
+        "unitBpm": "bpm",
+        "unitMs": "ms",
         "detailSameDay": "Średnio {withAvg} {unit} w {withDays} dniach z tym tagiem wobec {withoutAvg} {unit} bez niego.",
         "detailNextDay": "Średnio {withAvg} {unit} dzień po {withDays} dniach z tym tagiem wobec {withoutAvg} {unit} w pozostałe dni."
       },

src/components/insights/mood/__tests__/mood-tag-metric-crosstab.test.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,91 @@
+import { describe, it, expect } from "vitest";
+import { renderToStaticMarkup } from "react-dom/server";
+
+import { I18nProvider } from "@/lib/i18n/context";
+import {
+  MoodTagMetricCrosstab,
+  type MoodTagMetricCrosstabRow,
+} from "../mood-tag-metric-crosstab";
+
+function render(node: React.ReactNode) {
+  return renderToStaticMarkup(
+    <I18nProvider initialLocale="en">{node}</I18nProvider>,
+  );
+}
+
+function row(
+  over: Partial<MoodTagMetricCrosstabRow> = {},
+): MoodTagMetricCrosstabRow {
+  return {
+    tag: "alcohol",
+    labelKey: "mood.tag.alcohol",
+    label: null,
+    categoryKey: "consumption",
+    icon: "Wine",
+    metricKey: "nextDayRestingHeartRate",
+    display: "bpm",
+    mode: "nextDay",
+    withDays: 12,
+    withoutDays: 14,
+    withAvg: 62.4,
+    withoutAvg: 54.1,
+    delta: 8.3,
+    pValue: 0.002,
+    qValue: 0.02,
+    confidence: "high",
+    ...over,
+  };
+}
+
+describe("<MoodTagMetricCrosstab>", () => {
+  it("renders nothing for an empty list", () => {
+    expect(render(<MoodTagMetricCrosstab rows={[]} />)).toBe("");
+  });
+
+  it("labels a next-day resting-heart-rate row and prints its bpm unit", () => {
+    const html = render(<MoodTagMetricCrosstab rows={[row()]} />);
+    expect(html).toContain("Next-day resting heart rate");
+    expect(html).toContain("+8.3 bpm");
+    expect(html).toContain('data-metric="nextDayRestingHeartRate"');
+  });
+
+  it("labels a next-day HRV row and prints its ms unit", () => {
+    const html = render(
+      <MoodTagMetricCrosstab
+        rows={[
+          row({
+            metricKey: "nextDayHeartRateVariability",
+            display: "ms",
+            withAvg: 38.2,
+            withoutAvg: 55.6,
+            delta: -17.4,
+          }),
+        ]}
+      />,
+    );
+    expect(html).toContain("Next-day heart-rate variability");
+    expect(html).toContain("-17.4 ms");
+    expect(html).toContain('data-metric="nextDayHeartRateVariability"');
+  });
+
+  it("captions a next-day row with the day-after wording", () => {
+    const html = render(<MoodTagMetricCrosstab rows={[row()]} />);
+    expect(html).toContain("the day after the 12 days you tagged this");
+  });
+
+  // The board mixes metrics of opposite valence — a higher next-day resting
+  // heart rate is worse, a higher active energy is better — so the delta
+  // read-out must stay neutral rather than assert a verdict in colour.
+  it("keeps the delta read-out neutral instead of colouring it by sign", () => {
+    const up = render(<MoodTagMetricCrosstab rows={[row()]} />);
+    const down = render(
+      <MoodTagMetricCrosstab rows={[row({ delta: -8.3 })]} />,
+    );
+    for (const html of [up, down]) {
+      expect(html).not.toContain("var(--success)");
+      expect(html).not.toContain("var(--destructive)");
+    }
+    expect(up).toContain('data-direction="up"');
+    expect(down).toContain('data-direction="down"');
+  });
+});

src/components/insights/mood/mood-tag-metric-crosstab.tsx

@@ -16,9 +16,15 @@ import type { MoodInfluenceConfidence } from "./mood-tag-influence";
  * relations surface uses; only FDR-surviving rows reach here. Observational
  * only: the generic "associations, not causes" caveat lives once in the
  * page-level Insights footer, so this card no longer repeats it.
+ *
+ * The delta read-out is NEUTRAL, matching the rated-factor board. Once the
+ * board carries next-day resting heart rate alongside sleep and active energy,
+ * a positive delta is good on one row and bad on the next, so a green/red
+ * sign would assert a health verdict the association does not support. The
+ * sign prefix and `data-direction` carry the direction instead.
  */
 
-export type MoodCrosstabDisplay = "hours" | "kcal" | "score";
+export type MoodCrosstabDisplay = "hours" | "kcal" | "score" | "bpm" | "ms";
 export type MoodCrosstabMode = "sameDay" | "nextDay";
 
 export interface MoodTagMetricCrosstabRow {
@@ -49,12 +55,16 @@ const METRIC_LABEL_KEY: Record<string, string> = {
   activeEnergy: "insights.mood.crosstab.metricActiveEnergy",
   sleepDuration: "insights.mood.crosstab.metricSleepDuration",
   nextDayRecovery: "insights.mood.crosstab.metricNextDayRecovery",
+  nextDayRestingHeartRate: "insights.mood.crosstab.metricNextDayRestingHr",
+  nextDayHeartRateVariability: "insights.mood.crosstab.metricNextDayHrv",
 };
 
 const UNIT_KEY: Record<MoodCrosstabDisplay, string> = {
   hours: "insights.mood.crosstab.unitHours",
   kcal: "insights.mood.crosstab.unitKcal",
   score: "insights.mood.crosstab.unitScore",
+  bpm: "insights.mood.crosstab.unitBpm",
+  ms: "insights.mood.crosstab.unitMs",
 };
 
 const CONFIDENCE_KEY: Record<MoodInfluenceConfidence, string> = {
@@ -101,9 +111,6 @@ export function MoodTagMetricCrosstab({
           const unit = t(UNIT_KEY[row.display]);
           const up = row.delta >= 0;
           const deltaText = `${up ? "+" : ""}${fmt(row.delta, row.display)} ${unit}`;
-          // Semantic feedback tokens (not raw `--dracula-*`): the delta read-out
-          // is COLORED TEXT, so it needs the Alucard light-mode override for AA.
-          const deltaColor = up ? "var(--success)" : "var(--destructive)";
           return (
             <li
               key={`${row.metricKey}:${row.tag}`}
@@ -129,10 +136,7 @@ export function MoodTagMetricCrosstab({
                     metric: metricLabel,
                   })}
                 </span>
-                <span
-                  className="shrink-0 text-sm font-semibold tabular-nums"
-                  style={{ color: deltaColor }}
-                >
+                <span className="text-foreground shrink-0 text-sm font-semibold tabular-nums">
                   {deltaText}
                 </span>
                 <span

src/lib/insights/__tests__/mood-aggregates.test.ts

@@ -21,6 +21,9 @@ import {
   CROSSTAB_MIN_PRESENT_DAYS,
   CROSSTAB_MIN_ABSENT_DAYS,
   CROSSTAB_MAX_ROWS,
+  CROSSTAB_METRICS,
+  CROSSTAB_METRIC_TYPES,
+  CROSSTAB_FDR_Q,
   influenceConfidence,
   computeTimeOfDayAverages,
   computeWeekdayAverages,
@@ -1069,6 +1072,92 @@ describe("computeTagMetricCrosstab", () => {
     expect(row!.delta).toBeLessThan(0);
   });
 
+  // The alcohol question the tag board could not answer before: a binary
+  // evening tag against the two overnight-recovery VITALS, at the same
+  // D → D+1 lag the recovery channel already used.
+  const ALCOHOL_TAG: StructuredTagRef = {
+    key: "alcohol",
+    categoryKey: "consumption",
+    labelKey: "mood.tag.alcohol",
+    icon: "Wine",
+  };
+
+  /**
+   * 24 consecutive days: the tag on days 1..12 paired to `presentValue` on
+   * the following day, no tag on days 13..24 paired to `absentValue`.
+   */
+  function nextDayFixture(
+    type: string,
+    presentValue: number,
+    absentValue: number,
+  ) {
+    const entries: MoodAggregateEntry[] = [];
+    const measurements: CrossMetricMeasurement[] = [];
+    for (let i = 1; i <= 12; i++) {
+      entries.push(structuredEntry(i, 3, [ALCOHOL_TAG]));
+      measurements.push(
+        meas(i - 1, type, presentValue + (i % 2 === 0 ? 2 : -2)),
+      );
+    }
+    for (let i = 13; i <= 24; i++) {
+      entries.push(structuredEntry(i, 4, []));
+      measurements.push(
+        meas(i - 1, type, absentValue + (i % 2 === 0 ? 2 : -2)),
+      );
+    }
+    return { entries, measurements };
+  }
+
+  it("pairs a tag against the NEXT day's resting heart rate (D → D+1 lag)", () => {
+    const { entries, measurements } = nextDayFixture(
+      "RESTING_HEART_RATE",
+      62,
+      54,
+    );
+    const rows = computeTagMetricCrosstab({ entries, measurements, now: NOW });
+    const row = rows.find(
+      (r) => r.tag === "alcohol" && r.metricKey === "nextDayRestingHeartRate",
+    );
+    expect(row).toBeDefined();
+    expect(row!.mode).toBe("nextDay");
+    expect(row!.display).toBe("bpm");
+    expect(row!.withDays).toBe(12);
+    expect(row!.withoutDays).toBe(12);
+    // bpm passes through un-scaled — only SLEEP_DURATION divides by 60.
+    expect(row!.withAvg).toBeCloseTo(62, 0);
+    expect(row!.withoutAvg).toBeCloseTo(54, 0);
+    expect(row!.delta).toBeCloseTo(8, 0);
+    expect(row!.qValue).toBeLessThanOrEqual(CROSSTAB_FDR_Q);
+  });
+
+  it("pairs a tag against the NEXT day's heart-rate variability (D → D+1 lag)", () => {
+    const { entries, measurements } = nextDayFixture(
+      "HEART_RATE_VARIABILITY",
+      38,
+      55,
+    );
+    const rows = computeTagMetricCrosstab({ entries, measurements, now: NOW });
+    const row = rows.find(
+      (r) =>
+        r.tag === "alcohol" && r.metricKey === "nextDayHeartRateVariability",
+    );
+    expect(row).toBeDefined();
+    expect(row!.mode).toBe("nextDay");
+    expect(row!.display).toBe("ms");
+    expect(row!.withAvg).toBeCloseTo(38, 0);
+    expect(row!.withoutAvg).toBeCloseTo(55, 0);
+    expect(row!.delta).toBeCloseTo(-17, 0);
+  });
+
+  it("reads both overnight vitals from the fetched channel set", () => {
+    // The fetch filter is derived from the map, so a metric added to
+    // CROSSTAB_METRICS without a channel to read it from is impossible.
+    expect(CROSSTAB_METRIC_TYPES).toContain("RESTING_HEART_RATE");
+    expect(CROSSTAB_METRIC_TYPES).toContain("HEART_RATE_VARIABILITY");
+    expect(CROSSTAB_METRICS.nextDayRestingHeartRate.mode).toBe("nextDay");
+    expect(CROSSTAB_METRICS.nextDayHeartRateVariability.mode).toBe("nextDay");
+  });
+
   it("drops a tag below the per-side day floors", () => {
     const entries: MoodAggregateEntry[] = [];
     const measurements: CrossMetricMeasurement[] = [];

src/lib/insights/mood-crosstab.ts

@@ -53,7 +53,8 @@ import type { MeasurementSource } from "@/generated/prisma/client";
  *    sleep tag × SLEEP_DURATION).
  *  - "nextDay" — the metric on the day AFTER the tag (D → D+1 lag join, the
  *    same lag the correlation-discovery engine uses). Used for an
- *    alcohol/food tag × next-day recovery/readiness (RECOVERY_SCORE),
+ *    alcohol/food tag × the overnight-recovery channels — readiness
+ *    (RECOVERY_SCORE), resting heart rate and heart-rate variability —
  *    where the plausible direction is "tonight's choice → tomorrow's
  *    recovery".
  *
@@ -89,7 +90,7 @@ export const CROSSTAB_METRICS: Record<
   {
     type: MeasurementType;
     mode: CrosstabMode;
-    display: "hours" | "kcal" | "score";
+    display: "hours" | "kcal" | "score" | "bpm" | "ms";
   }
 > = {
   // A workout / active tag × same-day active energy.
@@ -106,10 +107,31 @@ export const CROSSTAB_METRICS: Record<
     mode: "nextDay",
     display: "score",
   },
+  // The two overnight-recovery vitals, same D → D+1 lag as recovery. A
+  // recovery score is a wearable composite that many accounts never record,
+  // and resting heart rate / HRV are the channels that carry the same
+  // "last night's body" signal on a plain phone or scale sync. The rated-factor
+  // board (`FACTOR_CROSSTAB_METRICS`) already tests both at this lag; the tag
+  // board did not, so a BINARY evening tag — alcohol, a late meal, a nightcap —
+  // had no path to either vital. Same engine, same floors, same BH family.
+  nextDayRestingHeartRate: {
+    type: "RESTING_HEART_RATE",
+    mode: "nextDay",
+    display: "bpm",
+  },
+  nextDayHeartRateVariability: {
+    type: "HEART_RATE_VARIABILITY",
+    mode: "nextDay",
+    display: "ms",
+  },
 } as const;
 
 export type CrosstabMetricKey = keyof typeof CROSSTAB_METRICS;
 
+/** Display units the tag crosstab emits — derived so the row can't drift. */
+export type CrosstabMetricDisplay =
+  (typeof CROSSTAB_METRICS)[CrosstabMetricKey]["display"];
+
 /** Distinct measurement types the crosstab reads — single-sourced. */
 export const CROSSTAB_METRIC_TYPES: MeasurementType[] = Array.from(
   new Set(Object.values(CROSSTAB_METRICS).map((m) => m.type)),
@@ -129,7 +151,7 @@ export interface TagMetricCrosstabRow {
   /** Which metric channel this row compares against. */
   metricKey: CrosstabMetricKey;
   /** Display unit hint for the client formatter. */
-  display: "hours" | "kcal" | "score";
+  display: CrosstabMetricDisplay;
   /** Pairing mode used (echoed so the UI can caption "next-day"). */
   mode: CrosstabMode;
   /** Days the tag was present that had a paired metric value. */
@@ -237,10 +259,7 @@ export function shiftDayKey(day: string, lagDays: number): string {
 }
 
 /** Convert a raw metric value to the row's display unit. */
-function toDisplayUnit(
-  value: number,
-  display: "hours" | "kcal" | "score",
-): number {
+function toDisplayUnit(value: number, display: CrosstabMetricDisplay): number {
   return display === "hours" ? value / 60 : value;
 }