A stored positive ovulation test (LH surge) was ignored by the
predictor. Wire it in as a Marquette/Fehring anchor: a positive surge
predicts ovulation ~24-36h later, so the estimated ovulation is set one
day after the last positive LH test in the current window, sharpening the
estimate over the calendar back-calculation — most valuable in the
thin-data (<3 cycle) case where the median/luteal back-calc is weak.
The LH surge is a SIGNAL that refines, never a sole assertion: it
re-anchors the still-estimated ovulation but never flips
`ovulationConfirmed` (a single indicator is not the symptothermal
double-check), and a confirmed symptothermal/temperature-trend ovulation
always wins over it. The still-learning gate and the un-confirmed status
are preserved. A stale prior-cycle surge whose next-start lands in the
past is rejected.
Citation: Fehring R.J. — Marquette Method; urinary LH peaks ~1 day before
ovulation.
The symptothermal layer ran against the full day-log history: detectTempShift
returned the earliest 3-over-6 rise and detectMucusPeak the last egg-white day
across all cycles, so a multi-cycle user with historical BBT confirmed a
months-old ovulation and the predicted next-period start landed in the past.
Scope the temperature/mucus detectors to the current cycle window
[lastConfirmedStart − BBT_WINDOW, today], take the latest qualifying temp shift,
and reject any confirmation whose next-start is already in the past.
Resolve luteal length through a single clamp. The predictor clamped to [10,16]
while the calendar adapter and phase mapper used the raw stored value, so the
ovulation dot and the OVULATORY band could land on different days for an
out-of-clamp profile. Export resolveLuteal/clampLuteal, route buildCalendar,
buildPhaseCycles and phaseForDay through it, and tighten the profile-prefs Zod
bound to the same [10,16] range.
Show the fertile window for AVOID_PREGNANCY as well as TRYING_TO_CONCEIVE per the
algorithm spec; it stays hidden for GENERAL_HEALTH/PERIMENOPAUSE.
Bound the day-log reads on the calendar and insights routes to the rendered span
plus the symptothermal lookback instead of the full history; cycle-length stats
already run off the MenstrualCycle rows.
Add mood and blood glucose as phase-crosstab outcome metrics under the same FDR
and per-group day floors. Mood is read from MoodEntry and injected as a synthetic
channel since it is not a measurement row.
Add multi-cycle, luteal-clamp and fertile-window fixtures.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Pure, DB-free cycle prediction and phase-assignment engine under
src/lib/cycle/. The math mirrors the offline-parity spec exactly so the
server and the native client compute byte-identical forecasts from the
same canonical inputs.
- day-math: noon-UTC anchored YYYY-MM-DD arithmetic (dayDiff, addDays,
round-half-up) that stays stable across timezones and DST transitions.
- prediction: robust median+MAD cycle-length estimator over a trailing
12-cycle window with 3-MAD outlier exclusion and missed-log detection;
period-length estimator; one-sigma Low/High date band widened by
logging sparsity; luteal back-calculated ovulation + six-day fertile
window; the CALENDAR -> symptothermal -> temperature-trend method
ladder (sensiplan 3-over-6 + mucus-peak re-implemented from the
published method) with documented blend precedence; a multiplicative
confidence scalar shrinking with length variance, low cycle count, and
sparse logging.
- phase: day-of-cycle -> MENSTRUAL/FOLLICULAR/OVULATORY/LUTEAL boundary
mapping with menstrual precedence on overlap.
- 48 unit tests covering the regular, irregular, cold-start, outlier,
symptothermal, temperature-trend, and every phase-boundary case; all
assertions are timezone-independent and pin exact dates + confidence.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Marc-André Bombeck