diff --git a/e2e/onboarding-ai-offer.spec.ts b/e2e/onboarding-ai-offer.spec.ts
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..0e7bb948c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/e2e/onboarding-ai-offer.spec.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,170 @@
+/**
+ * v1.38.19 (wave D) — the AI offer at the end of the setup flow.
+ *
+ * The screen used to promise that insights "work for you right now" the
+ * moment the operator had configured a key. It never knew whether the key
+ * answered, and it never mentioned the consent receipt the egress actually
+ * needs — so the person who believed it met a `consent.ai.required` refusal
+ * on their first briefing. On 2026-09-11 the operator's own instance was
+ * answering HTTP 500 from its OAuth proxy while the screen kept promising.
+ *
+ * Two runs, one account, and the only difference between them is a row in
+ * `provider_health`:
+ *
+ *   a success inside the freshness window  → the offer, and one tap grants
+ *   a dead credential inside its cooldown  → "not answering", and no button
+ *
+ * What is deliberately absent: any call to a provider. The flow's rule holds
+ * — nothing in it talks to one — and a probe here would bill the operator for
+ * every registration on the instance.
+ *
+ * Serial, and it restores the instance state it seeded: the tri-state folds
+ * across accounts by design, so its inputs are instance-wide.
+ */
+import {
+  E2E_SETUP_AI_OFFER,
+  SETUP_AI_OFFER_STORAGE_STATE_PATH,
+} from "./setup/global-setup";
+import {
+  clearAiConsent,
+  clearOperatorProvider,
+  seedOperatorProvider,
+  seedSharedProviderResult,
+} from "./setup/ai-offer-fixture";
+import { resetSetupFlow } from "./setup/setup-flow-fixture";
+import { expect, test } from "./setup/test";
+import {
+  answer,
+  answerEverything,
+  complete,
+  expectScreen,
+} from "./setup-flow-helpers";
+
+const OFFER = '[data-slot="onboarding-ai-offer"]';
+const GRANT = '[data-slot="onboarding-ai-offer-grant"]';
+const UNAVAILABLE = '[data-slot="onboarding-ai-unavailable"]';
+const SHARED_KEY = '[data-slot="onboarding-ai-shared-key"]';
+
+/** Walk the account to the done screen through the API, then open it. */
+async function openDoneScreen(page: import("@playwright/test").Page) {
+  await page.goto("/onboarding");
+  await answerEverything(page);
+  // Q6 applies because the answers name glucose and weight; the flow does not
+  // complete while a screen it owes is unanswered.
+  await answer(page, {
+    step: "units",
+    units: { glucoseUnit: "mmol/L", unitPreference: "metric" },
+  });
+  await complete(page);
+  await answer(page, { step: "first-result", status: "skipped" });
+  await page.goto("/onboarding/done");
+  await expectScreen(page, "done");
+  // The panel itself is unconditional; the variant inside it is not.
+  await expect(page.locator('[data-slot="onboarding-ai-panel"]')).toBeVisible();
+}
+
+// One account, one instance-wide ledger. Two workers driving this at once
+// would each read the other's seed.
+test.describe.configure({ mode: "serial" });
+
+test.describe("the setup flow's AI offer follows the shared provider's health", () => {
+  test.use({ storageState: SETUP_AI_OFFER_STORAGE_STATE_PATH });
+
+  test.beforeEach(async () => {
+    await resetSetupFlow(E2E_SETUP_AI_OFFER.username);
+    await clearAiConsent(E2E_SETUP_AI_OFFER.username);
+    await seedOperatorProvider();
+  });
+
+  test.afterAll(async () => {
+    await clearOperatorProvider();
+    await clearAiConsent(E2E_SETUP_AI_OFFER.username);
+  });
+
+  test("offers one tap when the shared provider worked recently, and the tap leaves a receipt", async ({
+    page,
+  }) => {
+    test.setTimeout(90_000);
+    await seedSharedProviderResult(E2E_SETUP_AI_OFFER.username, {
+      result: "ok",
+      okMinutesAgo: 30,
+    });
+
+    // No receipt before the tap — otherwise the assertion after it proves
+    // nothing about the button.
+    const before = await page.request.get(
+      "/api/consent/ai/latest?kind=ai_full",
+    );
+    expect(before.status()).toBe(200);
+    expect(
+      ((await before.json()) as { data: { receipt: unknown } }).data.receipt,
+    ).toBeNull();
+
+    await openDoneScreen(page);
+
+    await expect(page.locator(OFFER)).toBeVisible({ timeout: 15_000 });
+    await expect(page.locator(UNAVAILABLE)).toHaveCount(0);
+
+    // No provider was called to decide this. The flow reads a projection.
+    const probes: string[] = [];
+    page.on("request", (req) => {
+      const path = new URL(req.url()).pathname;
+      if (path === "/api/ai/test" || path.startsWith("/api/insights/"))
+        probes.push(path);
+    });
+
+    await page.locator(GRANT).click();
+
+    // The line the person reads swaps to the granted one.
+    await expect(page.locator(SHARED_KEY)).toBeVisible({ timeout: 15_000 });
+    await expect(page.locator(GRANT)).toHaveCount(0);
+    expect(probes, "the offer must not trigger a provider call").toEqual([]);
+
+    const after = await page.request.get("/api/consent/ai/latest?kind=ai_full");
+    const receipt = (
+      (await after.json()) as {
+        data: { receipt: { kind: string; revokedAt: string | null } | null };
+      }
+    ).data.receipt;
+    expect(receipt).not.toBeNull();
+    expect(receipt!.kind).toBe("ai_full");
+    expect(receipt!.revokedAt).toBeNull();
+  });
+
+  test("says the provider is not answering while its credential is benched, and offers no button", async ({
+    page,
+  }) => {
+    test.setTimeout(90_000);
+    await seedSharedProviderResult(E2E_SETUP_AI_OFFER.username, {
+      result: "auth_failed",
+    });
+
+    await openDoneScreen(page);
+
+    await expect(page.locator(UNAVAILABLE)).toBeVisible({ timeout: 15_000 });
+    await expect(page.locator(GRANT)).toHaveCount(0);
+    await expect(page.locator(OFFER)).toHaveCount(0);
+    // The unproven promise is not shown to somebody who has not consented.
+    await expect(page.locator(SHARED_KEY)).toHaveCount(0);
+
+    // The rest of the panel is untouched: the flow stays complete without it.
+    await expect(
+      page.locator('[data-slot="onboarding-ai-keyless"]'),
+    ).toBeVisible();
+    await expect(
+      page.locator('[data-slot="onboarding-open-dashboard"]'),
+    ).toBeVisible();
+
+    // The grant route itself stays open — it is the user's own consent act
+    // and is reachable from Settings at any time. What this case pins is the
+    // decision the screen was handed, so read it back from the source.
+    const status = await page.request.get("/api/user/ai-provider");
+    const data = (
+      (await status.json()) as {
+        data: { serverProviderHealth: string; serverProviderOffer: boolean };
+      }
+    ).data;
+    expect(data.serverProviderHealth).toBe("unhealthy");
+    expect(data.serverProviderOffer).toBe(false);
+  });
+});
diff --git a/e2e/setup/ai-offer-fixture.ts b/e2e/setup/ai-offer-fixture.ts
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..a78bf00d9
--- /dev/null
+++ b/e2e/setup/ai-offer-fixture.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,132 @@
+/**
+ * v1.38.19 (wave D) — the instance state the shared-provider offer reads.
+ *
+ * Two rows decide what the setup flow's last screen may say, and neither has
+ * a product endpoint that writes them the way this journey needs:
+ *
+ *   `app_settings.admin_ai_key_encrypted` — presence alone makes the operator
+ *   the origin that would serve a user with no provider of their own
+ *   (`managedBy: "server"`). Nothing decrypts it on this path, so the value
+ *   below is a placeholder ciphertext and not a credential of any kind.
+ *
+ *   `provider_health` — the ledger the tri-state folds. It is written only as
+ *   a side effect of a real completion, which this suite must never make, so
+ *   the journey states the outcome it wants to reason about instead.
+ *
+ * Both are INSTANCE-wide by nature: the projection deliberately folds across
+ * accounts, because a fresh account's own ledger is empty by construction.
+ * That is why the spec runs serially and puts both back afterwards.
+ *
+ * Seeded through `pg`, the same transport `global-setup.ts` and the other
+ * fixtures use.
+ */
+import pg from "pg";
+
+/** Not a key. Presence is the only thing read on this path. */
+const PLACEHOLDER_ADMIN_KEY = "e2e-admin-key-presence-only";
+
+function connect(): pg.Pool {
+  const url = process.env.DATABASE_URL;
+  if (!url) {
+    throw new Error("[ai-offer-fixture] DATABASE_URL is not set");
+  }
+  return new pg.Pool({ connectionString: url });
+}
+
+async function userId(pool: pg.Pool, username: string): Promise<string> {
+  const { rows } = await pool.query<{ id: string }>(
+    `SELECT id FROM users WHERE username = $1`,
+    [username],
+  );
+  const id = rows[0]?.id;
+  if (!id) throw new Error(`[ai-offer-fixture] no account named ${username}`);
+  return id;
+}
+
+/** The operator has configured a shared provider on this instance. */
+export async function seedOperatorProvider(): Promise<void> {
+  const pool = connect();
+  try {
+    await pool.query(
+      `INSERT INTO app_settings (id, admin_ai_key_encrypted)
+       VALUES ('singleton', $1)
+       ON CONFLICT (id) DO UPDATE SET admin_ai_key_encrypted = EXCLUDED.admin_ai_key_encrypted`,
+      [PLACEHOLDER_ADMIN_KEY],
+    );
+  } finally {
+    await pool.end();
+  }
+}
+
+/** Put the instance back: no operator key, no ledger rows for either tag. */
+export async function clearOperatorProvider(): Promise<void> {
+  const pool = connect();
+  try {
+    await pool.query(
+      `UPDATE app_settings SET admin_ai_key_encrypted = NULL WHERE id = 'singleton'`,
+    );
+    await pool.query(
+      `DELETE FROM provider_health
+        WHERE provider_type IN ('admin-openai', 'admin-codex')`,
+    );
+  } finally {
+    await pool.end();
+  }
+}
+
+/**
+ * State one outcome for the operator's OpenAI provider.
+ *
+ *   `ok`          — it served somebody `okMinutesAgo` minutes ago.
+ *   `auth_failed` — its credential is dead and benched for another hour,
+ *                   which is the shape the operator's own instance was in on
+ *                   2026-09-11 (a 500 from the OAuth proxy, then a 401).
+ */
+export async function seedSharedProviderResult(
+  username: string,
+  outcome: { result: "ok"; okMinutesAgo: number } | { result: "auth_failed" },
+): Promise<void> {
+  const pool = connect();
+  try {
+    const id = await userId(pool, username);
+    await pool.query(
+      `DELETE FROM provider_health
+        WHERE provider_type IN ('admin-openai', 'admin-codex')`,
+    );
+    if (outcome.result === "ok") {
+      await pool.query(
+        `INSERT INTO provider_health
+           (id, user_id, provider_type, last_result, consecutive_failures,
+            last_ok_at, updated_at)
+         VALUES ($1, $2, 'admin-openai', 'ok', 0,
+                 NOW() - ($3 || ' minutes')::interval, NOW())`,
+        [`e2e-ph-${id}`, id, String(outcome.okMinutesAgo)],
+      );
+    } else {
+      await pool.query(
+        `INSERT INTO provider_health
+           (id, user_id, provider_type, last_result, last_status,
+            consecutive_failures, last_failure_at, next_retry_at, updated_at)
+         VALUES ($1, $2, 'admin-openai', 'auth_failed', 401, 1,
+                 NOW(), NOW() + interval '1 hour', NOW())`,
+        [`e2e-ph-${id}`, id],
+      );
+    }
+  } finally {
+    await pool.end();
+  }
+}
+
+/** No receipt on file — the state a fresh account reaches the screen in. */
+export async function clearAiConsent(username: string): Promise<void> {
+  const pool = connect();
+  try {
+    const id = await userId(pool, username);
+    await pool.query(`DELETE FROM consent_receipts WHERE user_id = $1`, [id]);
+    await pool.query(`DELETE FROM rate_limits WHERE key = 'consent:' || $1`, [
+      id,
+    ]);
+  } finally {
+    await pool.end();
+  }
+}
diff --git a/e2e/setup/global-setup.ts b/e2e/setup/global-setup.ts
index 13bfccc33..c3c47b567 100644
--- a/e2e/setup/global-setup.ts
+++ b/e2e/setup/global-setup.ts
@@ -487,6 +487,21 @@ export const E2E_SETUP_LOCALE = {
   role: "USER",
 } as const;
 
+/**
+ * v1.38.19 (wave D) — the shared-provider offer's own account.
+ *
+ * Its journey seeds INSTANCE-wide state (the operator key's presence and the
+ * provider-health ledger the tri-state folds) and mints a consent receipt on
+ * the account, so it cannot share one with a journey that asserts a module
+ * map or a tile order.
+ */
+export const E2E_SETUP_AI_OFFER = {
+  email: "e2e-setup-ai-offer@healthlog.test",
+  username: "e2e-setup-ai-offer",
+  password: "Ao6!Zd3fB9qMv2Rk",
+  role: "USER",
+} as const;
+
 export const SETUP_BP_STORAGE_STATE_PATH = resolve(
   process.cwd(),
   "e2e/setup/storageStateSetupBp.json",
@@ -511,6 +526,10 @@ export const SETUP_LOCALE_STORAGE_STATE_PATH = resolve(
   process.cwd(),
   "e2e/setup/storageStateSetupLocale.json",
 );
+export const SETUP_AI_OFFER_STORAGE_STATE_PATH = resolve(
+  process.cwd(),
+  "e2e/setup/storageStateSetupAiOffer.json",
+);
 
 const SETUP_FLOW_ACCOUNTS = [
   E2E_SETUP_BP,
@@ -519,6 +538,7 @@ const SETUP_FLOW_ACCOUNTS = [
   E2E_SETUP_CHILD,
   E2E_SETUP_A11Y,
   E2E_SETUP_LOCALE,
+  E2E_SETUP_AI_OFFER,
 ] as const;
 
 async function hashPassword(password: string): Promise<string> {
@@ -1261,6 +1281,7 @@ export default async function globalSetup(config: FullConfig): Promise<void> {
     await capture(E2E_SETUP_VISIT, SETUP_VISIT_STORAGE_STATE_PATH);
     await capture(E2E_SETUP_A11Y, SETUP_A11Y_STORAGE_STATE_PATH);
     await capture(E2E_SETUP_LOCALE, SETUP_LOCALE_STORAGE_STATE_PATH);
+    await capture(E2E_SETUP_AI_OFFER, SETUP_AI_OFFER_STORAGE_STATE_PATH);
     await capture(E2E_SETUP_CHILD, SETUP_CHILD_STORAGE_STATE_PATH);
     await pool.query(
       `UPDATE users SET totp_confirmed_at = $2 WHERE username = $1`,