feat(insights): correlate rated mood factors against vitals

Rated mood factors (work / sleep-quality / stress, scored per entry) now
participate in the cross-metric correlation surface. Until now their score
series was captured but read by zero analytics.

Two paths, both on the existing FDR-controlled engine:

- A factor x vital crosstab on the mood insights page and the mood
  snapshot: for each factor the user scores, split its days low vs high by
  the factor's own median, then run the same Welch test + day floors +
  Benjamini-Hochberg correction the tag crosstab uses. Surfaces lines like
  "sleep runs ~38 min below baseline on the days you rated work low"
  (n-gated, q <= 0.10, never fabricated on thin data).
- Factor channels (FACTOR:<key>) fold into the period-narrative discovery
  matrix as both lag source and lag target, so the drivers the coach and
  narrative reference can cite a factor relationship.

An inverse factor (higher rating = worse day) gets the documented sign-flip
once, at the series boundary, so "up" always reads as a better day and the
low/high split and phrasing stay honest. Strings land in all six locales;
the surface carries the standing "association, not cause" caption.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

src/components/insights/mood/mood-factor-metric-crosstab.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,175 @@
+"use client";
+
+import { useTranslations } from "@/lib/i18n/context";
+import { moodTagIcon } from "@/components/mood/mood-tag-icons";
+import { cn } from "@/lib/utils";
+import type { MoodInfluenceConfidence } from "./mood-tag-influence";
+
+/**
+ * v1.14.0 — RATED-factor × vital crosstab card.
+ *
+ * The cross-domain bridge: for each factor the user scores per entry (work /
+ * sleep-quality / stress …), a vital's mean on the days the factor was rated
+ * LOW (below its median) vs HIGH, the delta, and a confidence chip. The math
+ * is pre-computed in `mood-aggregates.ts` (`computeFactorMetricCrosstab`) —
+ * the same Welch t-test + day floors + Benjamini-Hochberg FDR the rest of the
+ * relations surface uses; only FDR-surviving rows reach here. An inverse
+ * factor (stress / conflict) already runs its split on the flipped series, so
+ * "low" always means a worse day; the phrasing reads "your worse <factor>
+ * days". Observational only: the page-level "associations, not causes" footer
+ * carries the caveat once.
+ */
+
+export type MoodFactorCrosstabDisplay =
+  | "hours"
+  | "score"
+  | "steps"
+  | "bpm"
+  | "ms"
+  | "kg"
+  | "mmHg";
+export type MoodFactorCrosstabMode = "sameDay" | "nextDay";
+
+export interface MoodFactorMetricCrosstabRow {
+  factor: string;
+  labelKey: string;
+  categoryKey: string;
+  icon: string | null;
+  inverse: boolean;
+  metricKey: string;
+  display: MoodFactorCrosstabDisplay;
+  mode: MoodFactorCrosstabMode;
+  lowDays: number;
+  highDays: number;
+  lowAvg: number;
+  highAvg: number;
+  delta: number;
+  pValue: number;
+  qValue: number;
+  confidence: MoodInfluenceConfidence;
+}
+
+const METRIC_LABEL_KEY: Record<string, string> = {
+  sleepDuration: "insights.mood.factorCrosstab.metricSleepDuration",
+  steps: "insights.mood.factorCrosstab.metricSteps",
+  restingHeartRate: "insights.mood.factorCrosstab.metricRestingHeartRate",
+  heartRateVariability: "insights.mood.factorCrosstab.metricHrv",
+  weight: "insights.mood.factorCrosstab.metricWeight",
+  bloodPressureSystolic: "insights.mood.factorCrosstab.metricBloodPressureSys",
+};
+
+const UNIT_KEY: Record<MoodFactorCrosstabDisplay, string> = {
+  hours: "insights.mood.factorCrosstab.unitHours",
+  score: "insights.mood.factorCrosstab.unitScore",
+  steps: "insights.mood.factorCrosstab.unitSteps",
+  bpm: "insights.mood.factorCrosstab.unitBpm",
+  ms: "insights.mood.factorCrosstab.unitMs",
+  kg: "insights.mood.factorCrosstab.unitKg",
+  mmHg: "insights.mood.factorCrosstab.unitMmHg",
+};
+
+const CONFIDENCE_KEY: Record<MoodInfluenceConfidence, string> = {
+  low: "insights.mood.influence.confidenceLow",
+  medium: "insights.mood.influence.confidenceMedium",
+  high: "insights.mood.influence.confidenceHigh",
+};
+
+const CONFIDENCE_CLASS: Record<MoodInfluenceConfidence, string> = {
+  low: "bg-secondary text-muted-foreground",
+  medium: "bg-info/15 text-info",
+  high: "bg-success/15 text-success",
+};
+
+/** Whole numbers for steps; one decimal otherwise. */
+function fmt(value: number, display: MoodFactorCrosstabDisplay): string {
+  return display === "steps" ? Math.round(value).toString() : value.toFixed(1);
+}
+
+export function MoodFactorMetricCrosstab({
+  rows,
+}: {
+  rows: MoodFactorMetricCrosstabRow[];
+}) {
+  const { t } = useTranslations();
+  if (rows.length === 0) return null;
+
+  return (
+    <div data-slot="mood-factor-metric-crosstab">
+      <p className="text-muted-foreground mb-2 text-sm">
+        {t("insights.mood.factorCrosstab.description")}
+      </p>
+      <ul className="divide-border divide-y">
+        {rows.map((row) => {
+          const Icon = moodTagIcon(row.icon);
+          const factorLabel = t(row.labelKey);
+          const metricLabel = t(
+            METRIC_LABEL_KEY[row.metricKey] ?? row.metricKey,
+          );
+          const unit = t(UNIT_KEY[row.display]);
+          // `delta` = lowAvg − highAvg: negative = vital runs lower on the
+          // low-factor (worse) days. The read-out is colored by sign.
+          const up = row.delta >= 0;
+          const deltaText = `${up ? "+" : ""}${fmt(row.delta, row.display)} ${unit}`;
+          const deltaColor = up ? "var(--success)" : "var(--destructive)";
+          return (
+            <li
+              key={`${row.metricKey}:${row.factor}`}
+              className="flex flex-col gap-1.5 py-2"
+              data-slot="mood-factor-crosstab-row"
+              data-metric={row.metricKey}
+              data-direction={up ? "up" : "down"}
+              data-confidence={row.confidence}
+            >
+              <div className="flex items-center gap-2 text-sm">
+                {Icon && (
+                  <Icon
+                    className="text-muted-foreground h-4 w-4 shrink-0"
+                    aria-hidden="true"
+                  />
+                )}
+                <span
+                  className="text-foreground min-w-0 flex-1 truncate"
+                  title={`${factorLabel} · ${metricLabel}`}
+                >
+                  {t("insights.mood.factorCrosstab.pairLabel", {
+                    factor: factorLabel,
+                    metric: metricLabel,
+                  })}
+                </span>
+                <span
+                  className="shrink-0 text-sm font-semibold tabular-nums"
+                  style={{ color: deltaColor }}
+                >
+                  {deltaText}
+                </span>
+                <span
+                  className={cn(
+                    "shrink-0 rounded-full px-2 py-0.5 text-[10px] font-medium",
+                    CONFIDENCE_CLASS[row.confidence],
+                  )}
+                >
+                  {t(CONFIDENCE_KEY[row.confidence])}
+                </span>
+              </div>
+              <p className="text-muted-foreground text-xs">
+                {t(
+                  row.inverse
+                    ? "insights.mood.factorCrosstab.detailInverse"
+                    : "insights.mood.factorCrosstab.detail",
+                  {
+                    factor: factorLabel,
+                    metric: metricLabel,
+                    lowAvg: fmt(row.lowAvg, row.display),
+                    highAvg: fmt(row.highAvg, row.display),
+                    unit,
+                    lowDays: row.lowDays,
+                  },
+                )}
+              </p>
+            </li>
+          );
+        })}
+      </ul>
+    </div>
+  );
+}

src/components/insights/mood/mood-insights-sections.tsx

@@ -9,6 +9,7 @@ import {
   CalendarDays,
   CalendarRange,
   Clock,
+  Gauge,
   Grid3x3,
   Link2,
   Sparkles,
@@ -94,6 +95,10 @@ import {
   MoodTagMetricCrosstab,
   type MoodTagMetricCrosstabRow,
 } from "./mood-tag-metric-crosstab";
+import {
+  MoodFactorMetricCrosstab,
+  type MoodFactorMetricCrosstabRow,
+} from "./mood-factor-metric-crosstab";
 
 /**
  * v1.8.5 — additional Mood Insights sections.
@@ -130,6 +135,9 @@ interface MoodInsightsResponse {
   // Optional only to tolerate a stale pre-v1.12.0 cached payload during a
   // rollout; the live endpoint always populates it.
   tagMetricCrosstab?: MoodTagMetricCrosstabRow[];
+  // Optional only to tolerate a stale pre-v1.14.0 cached payload during a
+  // rollout; the live endpoint always populates it.
+  factorCrosstab?: MoodFactorMetricCrosstabRow[];
   narratives: MoodNarrativeItem[];
   correlations: {
     sleep: MoodMetricCorrelationData;
@@ -244,6 +252,8 @@ export function MoodInsightsSections({
   const hasBetterDays = betterDays.length > 0;
   const crosstabRows = data.tagMetricCrosstab ?? [];
   const hasCrosstab = crosstabRows.length > 0;
+  const factorCrosstabRows = data.factorCrosstab ?? [];
+  const hasFactorCrosstab = factorCrosstabRows.length > 0;
 
   // v1.12.7 — the Stimmungskalender is lifted above the line chart on the page,
   // so it renders as its own region here.
@@ -368,7 +378,17 @@ export function MoodInsightsSections({
         </SectionCard>
       )}
 
+      {hasFactorCrosstab && (
+        <SectionCard
+          title={t("insights.mood.factorCrosstab.title")}
+          icon={Gauge}
+        >
+          <MoodFactorMetricCrosstab rows={factorCrosstabRows} />
+        </SectionCard>
+      )}
+
       <SectionCard title={t("insights.mood.correlationsTitle")} icon={Link2}>
+
         <p className="text-muted-foreground mb-2 text-sm">
           {t("insights.mood.correlationsDescription")}
         </p>