fix(onboarding): the connect step reads the sync verdict

The step decided "connected" from the ledger's `state` and had one piece of
copy for every outcome: "the first sync is in progress". That sentence was
false for a connection delivering for months, and worse for one the person
has to repair — the screen said everything was fine while the grant was gone.

`connectSourceView` resolves the envelope entry into one of four tiles and
says whether the flow may record its result. Only `pending_first_sync` and
`fresh` may; `stale` is acknowledged without being claimed as new; `stalled`,
`failing`, `reauth_required` and `parked` name the state and link at the page
that can change it. An unresolved envelope paints no tile at all.

A source the instance cannot connect — a BYO provider with no client pair, a
shared-app provider with no app — now points at the credentials instead of
offering a "Connect" button onto a card that has none.

src/lib/onboarding/__tests__/first-result-config.test.ts

@@ -3,6 +3,9 @@
  * on a surface that exists, so the first-result screen can never be handed
  * a task it cannot render.
  */
+import { readdirSync, readFileSync } from "node:fs";
+import { join } from "node:path";
+
 import { describe, expect, it } from "vitest";
 
 import { ONBOARDING_AREA_KEYS } from "@/lib/modules/registry";
@@ -11,6 +14,7 @@ import { NAV_DESTINATIONS } from "@/components/layout/nav-model";
 import {
   AREA_PAGE_HREF,
   AREA_READING_TARGETS,
+  connectSourceView,
   SOURCE_INTEGRATION,
 } from "../first-result-config";
 import { BROWSER_CONNECTABLE_SOURCES } from "../wizard-steps";
@@ -38,3 +42,180 @@ describe("first-result targets", () => {
     }
   });
 });
+
+/**
+ * v1.38.19 (wave B / C1, I2, I3) — what the connect step is allowed to say.
+ *
+ * The screen used to decide "connected" from the ledger's `state` field, whose
+ * default meant the opposite of its name, and had one piece of copy for every
+ * outcome. The decision is a pure function over the envelope entry now, so the
+ * eight verdicts can be enumerated here rather than inferred from markup.
+ */
+describe("connectSourceView", () => {
+  const cases = [
+    ["disconnected", "connect", false],
+    ["pending_first_sync", "result", true],
+    ["fresh", "result", true],
+    ["stale", "result", false],
+    ["stalled", "attention", false],
+    ["failing", "attention", false],
+    ["reauth_required", "attention", false],
+    ["parked", "attention", false],
+  ] as const;
+
+  it.each(cases)(
+    "verdict %s renders the %s tile and settles=%s",
+    (verdict, slot, settled) => {
+      const view = connectSourceView("whoop", {
+        connected: verdict !== "disconnected",
+        configured: true,
+        syncHealth: { verdict, since: "2026-09-01T00:00:00.000Z" },
+        lastSuccessAt: "2026-09-01T00:00:00.000Z",
+      });
+      expect(view?.slot).toBe(slot);
+      expect(view?.settled).toBe(settled);
+      expect(view?.verdict).toBe(verdict);
+    },
+  );
+
+  it("says nothing at all until the envelope has resolved", () => {
+    expect(connectSourceView("whoop", undefined)).toBeNull();
+  });
+
+  it("does not read a fresh account's empty ledger as a connection", () => {
+    // What a brand-new account publishes: no row anywhere, so `state` is the
+    // synthetic `unknown` and the verdict is `disconnected`.
+    const view = connectSourceView("whoop", {
+      connected: false,
+      configured: true,
+      state: "unknown",
+      syncHealth: { verdict: "disconnected", since: null },
+      lastSuccessAt: null,
+    });
+    expect(view?.slot).toBe("connect");
+    expect(view?.settled).toBe(false);
+  });
+
+  it("points a BYO provider with no credentials at the credentials", () => {
+    const view = connectSourceView("whoop", {
+      connected: false,
+      configured: false,
+      syncHealth: { verdict: "disconnected", since: null },
+      lastSuccessAt: null,
+    });
+    expect(view?.slot).toBe("credentials");
+  });
+
+  it("points a shared-app provider with no usable app at the credentials", () => {
+    const view = connectSourceView("oura", {
+      connected: false,
+      configured: false,
+      available: false,
+      syncHealth: { verdict: "disconnected", since: null },
+      lastSuccessAt: null,
+    });
+    expect(view?.slot).toBe("credentials");
+  });
+
+  it("offers the connect card when the instance's shared app resolves", () => {
+    const view = connectSourceView("oura", {
+      connected: false,
+      configured: false,
+      available: true,
+      syncHealth: { verdict: "disconnected", since: null },
+      lastSuccessAt: null,
+    });
+    expect(view?.slot).toBe("connect");
+  });
+
+  it("never withholds the connect card from a self-hosted URL source", () => {
+    const view = connectSourceView("nightscout", {
+      connected: false,
+      configured: false,
+      syncHealth: { verdict: "disconnected", since: null },
+      lastSuccessAt: null,
+    });
+    expect(view?.slot).toBe("connect");
+  });
+
+  it("dates a stale tile from the last value and a failing one from the streak", () => {
+    expect(
+      connectSourceView("whoop", {
+        connected: true,
+        configured: true,
+        syncHealth: { verdict: "stale", since: "2026-08-01T00:00:00.000Z" },
+        lastSuccessAt: "2026-08-20T00:00:00.000Z",
+      })?.when,
+    ).toBe("2026-08-20T00:00:00.000Z");
+    expect(
+      connectSourceView("whoop", {
+        connected: true,
+        configured: true,
+        syncHealth: { verdict: "failing", since: "2026-08-01T00:00:00.000Z" },
+        lastSuccessAt: null,
+      })?.when,
+    ).toBe("2026-08-01T00:00:00.000Z");
+  });
+});
+
+/**
+ * The connect step's copy is chosen by a key built at runtime from the
+ * verdict, which the repo's three i18n guards cannot see into: a template
+ * `ns.${x}` counts as covering its whole subtree, so a MEMBER missing from
+ * every bundle is invisible to them. Enumerate the verdicts here instead —
+ * the eight the server can resolve, in all seven locales.
+ */
+describe("connect-source state copy", () => {
+  const VERDICTS = [
+    "fresh",
+    "stale",
+    "stalled",
+    "failing",
+    "reauth_required",
+    "parked",
+    "pending_first_sync",
+  ] as const;
+
+  const LOCALES = readdirSync(join(__dirname, "../../../../messages"))
+    .filter((file) => file.endsWith(".json"))
+    .map((file) => ({
+      locale: file.replace(/\.json$/, ""),
+      copy: JSON.parse(
+        readFileSync(join(__dirname, "../../../../messages", file), "utf8"),
+      ) as Record<string, never>,
+    }));
+
+  it("covers all seven locales", () => {
+    expect(LOCALES.length).toBe(7);
+  });
+
+  it.each(LOCALES)(
+    "names every verdict in $locale, with no English fallback",
+    ({ locale, copy }) => {
+      const block = (
+        copy as unknown as {
+          onboarding: {
+            flow: {
+              "first-result": {
+                "connect-source": Record<string, Record<string, unknown>>;
+              };
+            };
+          };
+        }
+      ).onboarding.flow["first-result"]["connect-source"];
+      for (const verdict of VERDICTS) {
+        const entry = block.state[verdict] as
+          { title?: string; detail?: string } | undefined;
+        expect(entry?.title, `${locale}/${verdict}.title`).toBeTruthy();
+        expect(entry?.detail, `${locale}/${verdict}.detail`).toBeTruthy();
+      }
+      // `disconnected` is the one verdict with no state copy: it renders the
+      // connect card or the credentials note, neither of which is a claim
+      // about a connection that exists.
+      expect(block.state.disconnected).toBeUndefined();
+      expect(block.needsCredentials.title).toBeTruthy();
+      expect(block.openSettings).toBeTruthy();
+      expect(block.noDate).toBeTruthy();
+    },
+  );
+});

src/lib/onboarding/first-result-config.ts

@@ -7,6 +7,7 @@
  * which integration a Q4 source is, and which page carries an area the
  * measurement form cannot log.
  */
+import type { SyncVerdict } from "@/lib/integrations/sync-verdict";
 import type { OnboardingAreaKey } from "@/lib/modules/registry";
 
 import type { BrowserConnectableSource } from "./wizard-steps";
@@ -47,19 +48,131 @@ export const AREA_PAGE_HREF: Readonly<
   illness: "/illness",
 });
 
+/**
+ * How a source's connection is authorised on this instance, which decides
+ * what "cannot be connected yet" means for it:
+ *
+ * - `byo` — the OAuth app is per-user only (`configured` is the stored client
+ *   id/secret pair). With none, the provider card renders a credentials note
+ *   and no connect button at all, so offering "Connect" walks the person into
+ *   a dead end.
+ * - `shared` — an operator env app is the fallback (`available` says whether
+ *   any usable credentials resolve, own or shared).
+ * - `self-hosted` — a URL the person pastes; nothing can be missing up front.
+ */
+export type SourceCredentialModel = "byo" | "shared" | "self-hosted";
+
 /**
  * The connections panel's anchor for each connectable source — the `id` of
  * the provider card on Settings → Integrations, and the key its status is
  * published under on `/api/integrations/status`.
  */
 export const SOURCE_INTEGRATION: Readonly<
-  Record<BrowserConnectableSource, { anchor: string; statusKey: string }>
+  Record<
+    BrowserConnectableSource,
+    { anchor: string; statusKey: string; credentials: SourceCredentialModel }
+  >
 > = Object.freeze({
-  withings: { anchor: "withings", statusKey: "withings" },
-  oura: { anchor: "oura", statusKey: "oura" },
-  whoop: { anchor: "whoop", statusKey: "whoop" },
-  polar: { anchor: "polar", statusKey: "polar" },
-  fitbit: { anchor: "fitbit", statusKey: "fitbit" },
-  strava: { anchor: "strava", statusKey: "strava" },
-  nightscout: { anchor: "nightscout", statusKey: "nightscout" },
+  withings: { anchor: "withings", statusKey: "withings", credentials: "byo" },
+  oura: { anchor: "oura", statusKey: "oura", credentials: "shared" },
+  whoop: { anchor: "whoop", statusKey: "whoop", credentials: "byo" },
+  polar: { anchor: "polar", statusKey: "polar", credentials: "shared" },
+  fitbit: { anchor: "fitbit", statusKey: "fitbit", credentials: "byo" },
+  strava: { anchor: "strava", statusKey: "strava", credentials: "shared" },
+  nightscout: {
+    anchor: "nightscout",
+    statusKey: "nightscout",
+    credentials: "self-hosted",
+  },
 });
+
+/** Which tile the connect step renders. */
+export type ConnectSourceSlot =
+  /** Nothing is connected and something can be: today's connect card. */
+  | "connect"
+  /** Nothing is connected and nothing CAN be: point at the credentials. */
+  | "credentials"
+  /** A working connection — the flow's result, whether or not it is new. */
+  | "result"
+  /** A connection the person has to repair, named rather than painted green. */
+  | "attention";
+
+/** The fields of an `/api/integrations/status` entry this decision reads. */
+export interface ConnectSourceStatus {
+  connected?: boolean;
+  configured?: boolean;
+  available?: boolean;
+  state?: string;
+  syncHealth?: { verdict: SyncVerdict; since: string | null };
+  lastSuccessAt?: string | null;
+}
+
+export interface ConnectSourceView {
+  slot: ConnectSourceSlot;
+  verdict: SyncVerdict;
+  /**
+   * Whether the flow may record this as the completed first result. Only a
+   * connection that is delivering, or one whose first sync is under way —
+   * never a connection that needs repairing, and never the mere absence of a
+   * ledger row.
+   */
+  settled: boolean;
+  /** The instant the copy names, or null when there is none to name. */
+  when: string | null;
+}
+
+/**
+ * What the connect step may honestly say about one source.
+ *
+ * The liveness truth is `syncHealth.verdict` and nothing else — the ledger's
+ * `state` is what the last ATTEMPT did, and its "no row" default used to read
+ * as `connected`, which is how a brand-new account was told its wearable was
+ * connected and had the flow's one result stamped as achieved on its behalf.
+ *
+ * Returns `null` while the envelope has not resolved: an unloaded status is
+ * not evidence of anything, and the screen says nothing rather than guessing.
+ */
+export function connectSourceView(
+  source: BrowserConnectableSource,
+  status: ConnectSourceStatus | undefined,
+): ConnectSourceView | null {
+  if (!status) return null;
+  const verdict = status.syncHealth?.verdict ?? "disconnected";
+  const settled = verdict === "pending_first_sync" || verdict === "fresh";
+  const when =
+    verdict === "fresh" || verdict === "stale"
+      ? (status.lastSuccessAt ?? status.syncHealth?.since ?? null)
+      : (status.syncHealth?.since ?? status.lastSuccessAt ?? null);
+
+  if (settled || verdict === "stale") {
+    return { slot: "result", verdict, settled, when };
+  }
+  if (verdict !== "disconnected") {
+    return { slot: "attention", verdict, settled, when };
+  }
+  return {
+    slot: canStartConnection(source, status) ? "connect" : "credentials",
+    verdict,
+    settled,
+    when,
+  };
+}
+
+/**
+ * Whether the connect CTA leads anywhere. A `byo` provider without its client
+ * pair and a `shared` provider without any resolvable app both land on a card
+ * that has no connect button — the dead end the flow used to walk into.
+ */
+function canStartConnection(
+  source: BrowserConnectableSource,
+  status: ConnectSourceStatus,
+): boolean {
+  switch (SOURCE_INTEGRATION[source].credentials) {
+    case "byo":
+      return status.configured !== false;
+    case "shared":
+      return status.available !== false;
+    case "self-hosted":
+      return true;
+  }
+}