fix(insights): correct DST handling in cross-metric daily bucket pairing

The `pairDailyBuckets` helper in blood-pressure-status, weight-status,
and mood-status synthesised a `date` field via
`new Date(now − dayOffset·86_400_000)`. That subtraction treats every
day as exactly 24h — wrong on the Europe/Berlin DST boundaries (the
spring-forward day is 23h, the fall-back day is 25h). The result was
that `toBerlinDayKey(date)` slipped one calendar day for ~2 days/year,
causing miscredited correlations and mismatched same-day BP joins on
those boundaries.

Adds and exports `dayOffsetToBerlinDayKey(now, dayOffset)` from
`bucket-series.ts`. The helper anchors at Berlin Y-M-D (DST-immune via
Intl) then subtracts in UTC-anchored Berlin-day space, where every day
is exactly 86_400_000 ms wide because both endpoints are UTC midnights
of consecutive Berlin calendar days.

All three `pairDailyBuckets` helpers and the four other call sites
that synthesised a date from a dayOffset now use the helper. The
returned pair carries `dayKey` directly so callers don't have to
re-format. The synthesised `date` field is anchored at the UTC
midnight of the Berlin day so any code that still formats it via
`toBerlinDayKey()` gets the same DST-safe answer.

Adds unit tests across the 2024 spring (2024-03-31 02:00 → 03:00)
and autumn (2024-10-27 03:00 → 02:00) DST boundaries from late-evening
and early-morning Berlin times — the cases where the naive 24h
subtraction visibly slips a day.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

src/lib/insights/__tests__/bucket-series.test.ts

@@ -1,6 +1,10 @@
 import { describe, expect, it } from "vitest";
 
-import { applyPayloadBudget, bucketSeries } from "../bucket-series";
+import {
+  applyPayloadBudget,
+  bucketSeries,
+  dayOffsetToBerlinDayKey,
+} from "../bucket-series";
 
 const dayMs = 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000;
 
@@ -71,6 +75,68 @@ describe("bucketSeries()", () => {
   });
 });
 
+describe("dayOffsetToBerlinDayKey() across DST boundaries", () => {
+  // Europe/Berlin DST in 2024: spring-forward at 2024-03-31 02:00 → 03:00,
+  // fall-back at 2024-10-27 03:00 → 02:00. Naive `now − dayOffset·86_400_000`
+  // would crawl past those boundaries by an hour and silently land on the
+  // wrong calendar day for ~2 days/year. The helper must treat dayOffset
+  // as CALENDAR days, not 24-hour ticks.
+
+  it("produces today's Berlin date for dayOffset 0 around the spring-forward", () => {
+    // 2024-03-31 11:30 Berlin (= 09:30 UTC, after the gap).
+    const now = new Date("2024-03-31T09:30:00.000Z");
+    expect(dayOffsetToBerlinDayKey(now, 0)).toBe("2024-03-31");
+    expect(dayOffsetToBerlinDayKey(now, 1)).toBe("2024-03-30");
+  });
+
+  it("crossing the spring-forward DST boundary stays on the correct Berlin calendar day", () => {
+    // April 2 11:30 Berlin → 09:30 UTC (post-DST CEST).
+    const now = new Date("2024-04-02T09:30:00.000Z");
+    // Naive subtraction (now − 3·86_400_000) = 2024-03-30T09:30:00 UTC →
+    // 11:30 CET → still 2024-03-30. That happens to look right here, so
+    // the killer case is dayOffset 2 from a moment LATE on the day before
+    // the gap.
+    expect(dayOffsetToBerlinDayKey(now, 0)).toBe("2024-04-02");
+    expect(dayOffsetToBerlinDayKey(now, 1)).toBe("2024-04-01");
+    expect(dayOffsetToBerlinDayKey(now, 2)).toBe("2024-03-31");
+    expect(dayOffsetToBerlinDayKey(now, 3)).toBe("2024-03-30");
+  });
+
+  it("crossing the spring-forward boundary from late-evening Berlin time does not slip a day", () => {
+    // 2024-04-01 00:30 Berlin (= 2024-03-31 22:30 UTC, in CEST). Naive
+    // (now − 1·86_400_000) lands at 2024-03-30 22:30 UTC = 2024-03-30
+    // 23:30 CET, which Intl formats as 2024-03-30. The CALENDAR-day
+    // answer is 2024-03-31 — one Berlin calendar day earlier than today.
+    const now = new Date("2024-03-31T22:30:00.000Z");
+    expect(dayOffsetToBerlinDayKey(now, 0)).toBe("2024-04-01");
+    expect(dayOffsetToBerlinDayKey(now, 1)).toBe("2024-03-31");
+    expect(dayOffsetToBerlinDayKey(now, 2)).toBe("2024-03-30");
+  });
+
+  it("crossing the fall-back boundary from late-evening Berlin time does not slip a day", () => {
+    // 2024-10-28 00:30 Berlin (CET, post-fall-back) = 2024-10-27 23:30 UTC.
+    // Naive (now − 1·86_400_000) = 2024-10-26 23:30 UTC, which Intl
+    // formats with timeZone Europe/Berlin (still CEST!) as 2024-10-27
+    // 01:30 → 2024-10-27. That's actually correct by coincidence, so we
+    // probe the dayOffset where the bias bites:
+    const now = new Date("2024-10-27T23:30:00.000Z");
+    expect(dayOffsetToBerlinDayKey(now, 0)).toBe("2024-10-28");
+    expect(dayOffsetToBerlinDayKey(now, 1)).toBe("2024-10-27");
+    expect(dayOffsetToBerlinDayKey(now, 2)).toBe("2024-10-26");
+  });
+
+  it("crossing the fall-back boundary the other direction (early-morning) stays put", () => {
+    // 2024-10-27 02:30 Berlin AFTER the fall-back = 02:30 CET = 01:30 UTC.
+    // dayOffset 1 should be 2024-10-26 (calendar), not 2024-10-25 (which
+    // is what naive 24h subtraction gives because the day was 25 hours
+    // long).
+    const now = new Date("2024-10-27T01:30:00.000Z");
+    expect(dayOffsetToBerlinDayKey(now, 0)).toBe("2024-10-27");
+    expect(dayOffsetToBerlinDayKey(now, 1)).toBe("2024-10-26");
+    expect(dayOffsetToBerlinDayKey(now, 7)).toBe("2024-10-20");
+  });
+});
+
 describe("applyPayloadBudget()", () => {
   const now = new Date("2026-05-09T12:00:00Z");
 

src/lib/insights/blood-pressure-status.ts

@@ -19,12 +19,11 @@ import { sanitizeForPrompt } from "@/lib/insights/sanitize";
 import { getNoKeyBloodPressureStatusText } from "@/lib/insights/no-key-fallbacks";
 import {
   applyPayloadBudget,
+  dayOffsetToBerlinDayKey,
   type DailyBucket,
 } from "@/lib/insights/bucket-series";
 import { annotate } from "@/lib/logging/context";
 
-const MS_PER_DAY = 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000;
-
 const BERLIN_DAY_FORMATTER = new Intl.DateTimeFormat("en-US", {
   timeZone: "Europe/Berlin",
   year: "numeric",
@@ -80,25 +79,39 @@ function summarizeSeries(series: Array<{ value: number }>) {
   };
 }
 
+/**
+ * Pair two daily-bucket series on `dayOffset`. The synthesised `date`
+ * field is anchored at the UTC midnight of the Berlin calendar day —
+ * `dayOffsetToBerlinDayKey()` is the source of truth so DST boundaries
+ * don't slip the day-key by one. Each pair also carries `dayKey`
+ * directly so callers can label points without re-formatting.
+ */
 function pairDailyBuckets(
   seriesA: DailyBucket[],
   seriesB: DailyBucket[],
   now: Date,
-): PairedPoint[] {
+): Array<PairedPoint & { dayKey: string }> {
   const mapB = new Map(seriesB.map((entry) => [entry.dayOffset, entry.value]));
-  const nowMs = now.getTime();
 
   return seriesA
     .map((entry) => {
       const b = mapB.get(entry.dayOffset);
       if (b == null) return null;
+      const dayKey = dayOffsetToBerlinDayKey(now, entry.dayOffset);
+      // UTC midnight of the Berlin day — formatting this Date with
+      // `toBerlinDayKey()` is guaranteed DST-safe because the y-m-d
+      // fields below are the Berlin calendar day fields by construction.
+      const [y, m, d] = dayKey.split("-").map(Number);
       return {
         a: entry.value,
         b,
-        date: new Date(nowMs - entry.dayOffset * MS_PER_DAY),
+        date: new Date(Date.UTC(y, m - 1, d)),
+        dayKey,
       };
     })
-    .filter((entry): entry is PairedPoint => entry !== null);
+    .filter(
+      (entry): entry is PairedPoint & { dayKey: string } => entry !== null,
+    );
 }
 
 export async function generateBloodPressureStatusForUser(
@@ -217,7 +230,7 @@ export async function generateBloodPressureStatusForUser(
     diaSeries.daily,
     now,
   ).map((entry) => ({
-    day: toBerlinDayKey(entry.date),
+    day: entry.dayKey,
     sys: entry.a,
     dia: entry.b,
     inTarget:
@@ -322,10 +335,9 @@ export async function generateBloodPressureStatusForUser(
     takenByDay.set(dayKey, (takenByDay.get(dayKey) ?? 0) + 1);
   }
 
-  const nowMs = now.getTime();
   const continuityVsSystolicSeries = sysSeries.daily.map((point) => {
-    const dayDate = new Date(nowMs - point.dayOffset * MS_PER_DAY);
-    const dayKey = toBerlinDayKey(dayDate);
+    // DST-safe: dayOffsetToBerlinDayKey computes calendar days, not 24h ticks.
+    const dayKey = dayOffsetToBerlinDayKey(now, point.dayOffset);
     const taken = takenByDay.get(dayKey) ?? 0;
     const continuityPct =
       expectedBpIntakesPerDay > 0
@@ -361,10 +373,12 @@ export async function generateBloodPressureStatusForUser(
   const continuityVsSystolicPairs: PairedPoint[] = continuityVsSystolicSeries
     .map((entry) => {
       if (entry.continuityPct == null) return null;
+      const [y, m, d] = entry.day.split("-").map(Number);
       return {
         a: entry.continuityPct,
         b: entry.sys,
-        date: new Date(nowMs - entry.dayOffset * MS_PER_DAY),
+        // UTC midnight of the Berlin day — DST-safe (see pairDailyBuckets).
+        date: new Date(Date.UTC(y, m - 1, d)),
       };
     })
     .filter((entry): entry is PairedPoint => entry !== null);
@@ -432,7 +446,7 @@ export async function generateBloodPressureStatusForUser(
     weightVsSystolic: {
       correlation: weightVsSystolicCorrelation,
       pairs: weightVsSystolicPairs.map((entry) => ({
-        day: toBerlinDayKey(entry.date),
+        day: entry.dayKey,
         weight: round(entry.a, 2),
         systolic: round(entry.b, 2),
       })),

src/lib/insights/bucket-series.ts

@@ -83,6 +83,38 @@ function utcMidnightOfBerlinDay(date: Date): number {
   return Date.UTC(year, month - 1, day);
 }
 
+/**
+ * Convert a `dayOffset` (0 = today in Berlin, 1 = yesterday, …) back to
+ * the `YYYY-MM-DD` Berlin calendar day key the offset refers to.
+ *
+ * The naive `new Date(now − dayOffset·86_400_000)` then formatting in
+ * `Europe/Berlin` is OFF-BY-ONE-DAY across DST boundaries — the day of
+ * the spring-forward is 23h long and the day of the fall-back is 25h
+ * long, so a 24h subtraction crawls past the boundary by one hour and
+ * silently lands on the wrong calendar day for ~2 days/year.
+ *
+ * This helper anchors on Berlin Y-M-D first (DST-immune via Intl), then
+ * does the subtraction in UTC-of-Y-M-D space where every day is exactly
+ * 86_400_000 ms wide — so calendar arithmetic stays exact.
+ *
+ * Exported so the cross-metric `pairDailyBuckets` helpers in
+ * `blood-pressure-status.ts`, `weight-status.ts`, `mood-status.ts`,
+ * etc. all use the same source of truth.
+ */
+export function dayOffsetToBerlinDayKey(now: Date, dayOffset: number): string {
+  const todayMidnight = utcMidnightOfBerlinDay(now);
+  // Subtraction in UTC-anchored Berlin-day space: every day is 24h wide
+  // because both endpoints are UTC midnights of consecutive Berlin
+  // calendar days, regardless of how long the wall-clock day actually was.
+  const targetUtc = new Date(todayMidnight - dayOffset * MS_PER_DAY);
+  // Read the Y-M-D off the UTC fields directly — we anchored at UTC
+  // midnight, so `getUTC*` gives back the Berlin calendar day exactly.
+  const year = targetUtc.getUTCFullYear();
+  const month = String(targetUtc.getUTCMonth() + 1).padStart(2, "0");
+  const day = String(targetUtc.getUTCDate()).padStart(2, "0");
+  return `${year}-${month}-${day}`;
+}
+
 function round(value: number): number {
   return Math.round(value * 100) / 100;
 }

src/lib/insights/mood-status.ts

@@ -12,6 +12,7 @@ import {
 } from "@/lib/analytics/correlations";
 import {
   applyPayloadBudget,
+  dayOffsetToBerlinDayKey,
   type DailyBucket,
 } from "@/lib/insights/bucket-series";
 import { annotate } from "@/lib/logging/context";
@@ -73,25 +74,36 @@ function summarizeSeries(series: Array<{ value: number }>) {
   };
 }
 
+/**
+ * Pair two daily-bucket series on `dayOffset`. The synthesised `date`
+ * field is anchored at the UTC midnight of the Berlin calendar day —
+ * `dayOffsetToBerlinDayKey()` is the source of truth so DST boundaries
+ * don't slip the day-key by one. Each pair also carries `dayKey`
+ * directly so callers can label points without re-formatting.
+ */
 function pairDailyBuckets(
   seriesA: DailyBucket[],
   seriesB: DailyBucket[],
   now: Date,
-): PairedPoint[] {
+): Array<PairedPoint & { dayKey: string }> {
   const mapB = new Map(seriesB.map((entry) => [entry.dayOffset, entry.value]));
-  const nowMs = now.getTime();
 
   return seriesA
     .map((entry) => {
       const b = mapB.get(entry.dayOffset);
       if (b == null) return null;
+      const dayKey = dayOffsetToBerlinDayKey(now, entry.dayOffset);
+      const [y, m, d] = dayKey.split("-").map(Number);
       return {
         a: entry.value,
         b,
-        date: new Date(nowMs - entry.dayOffset * MS_PER_DAY),
+        date: new Date(Date.UTC(y, m - 1, d)),
+        dayKey,
       };
     })
-    .filter((entry): entry is PairedPoint => entry !== null);
+    .filter(
+      (entry): entry is PairedPoint & { dayKey: string } => entry !== null,
+    );
 }
 
 export async function generateMoodStatusForUser(

src/lib/insights/weight-status.ts

@@ -15,12 +15,11 @@ import {
 } from "@/lib/insights/memory";
 import {
   applyPayloadBudget,
+  dayOffsetToBerlinDayKey,
   type DailyBucket,
 } from "@/lib/insights/bucket-series";
 import { annotate } from "@/lib/logging/context";
 
-const MS_PER_DAY = 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000;
-
 const BERLIN_DAY_FORMATTER = new Intl.DateTimeFormat("en-US", {
   timeZone: "Europe/Berlin",
   year: "numeric",
@@ -76,25 +75,36 @@ function summarizeSeries(series: Array<{ value: number }>) {
   };
 }
 
+/**
+ * Pair two daily-bucket series on `dayOffset`. The synthesised `date`
+ * field is anchored at the UTC midnight of the Berlin calendar day —
+ * `dayOffsetToBerlinDayKey()` is the source of truth so DST boundaries
+ * don't slip the day-key by one. Each pair also carries `dayKey`
+ * directly so callers can label points without re-formatting.
+ */
 function pairDailyBuckets(
   seriesA: DailyBucket[],
   seriesB: DailyBucket[],
   now: Date,
-): PairedPoint[] {
+): Array<PairedPoint & { dayKey: string }> {
   const mapB = new Map(seriesB.map((entry) => [entry.dayOffset, entry.value]));
-  const nowMs = now.getTime();
 
   return seriesA
     .map((entry) => {
       const b = mapB.get(entry.dayOffset);
       if (b == null) return null;
+      const dayKey = dayOffsetToBerlinDayKey(now, entry.dayOffset);
+      const [y, m, d] = dayKey.split("-").map(Number);
       return {
         a: entry.value,
         b,
-        date: new Date(nowMs - entry.dayOffset * MS_PER_DAY),
+        date: new Date(Date.UTC(y, m - 1, d)),
+        dayKey,
       };
     })
-    .filter((entry): entry is PairedPoint => entry !== null);
+    .filter(
+      (entry): entry is PairedPoint & { dayKey: string } => entry !== null,
+    );
 }
 
 export async function generateWeightStatusForUser(
@@ -169,7 +179,6 @@ export async function generateWeightStatusForUser(
   });
 
   const now = new Date();
-  const nowMs = now.getTime();
 
   const weightSeries = applyPayloadBudget(
     measurements
@@ -232,7 +241,7 @@ export async function generateWeightStatusForUser(
     diaSeries.daily,
     now,
   ).map((entry) => ({
-    day: toBerlinDayKey(entry.date),
+    day: entry.dayKey,
     sys: entry.a,
     dia: entry.b,
     mean: round((entry.a + entry.b) / 2, 2),
@@ -242,9 +251,7 @@ export async function generateWeightStatusForUser(
   // pairDailyBuckets — derive dayOffset from the offsets in sysSeries.
   const sysOffsetByDay = new Map(
     sysSeries.daily.map((bucket) => {
-      const dayKey = toBerlinDayKey(
-        new Date(nowMs - bucket.dayOffset * MS_PER_DAY),
-      );
+      const dayKey = dayOffsetToBerlinDayKey(now, bucket.dayOffset);
       return [dayKey, bucket.dayOffset];
     }),
   );
@@ -267,7 +274,7 @@ export async function generateWeightStatusForUser(
   const latestWeight = weightSeries.daily[0] ?? null;
   const previousWeight = weightSeries.daily[1] ?? null;
   const latestWeightDay = latestWeight
-    ? toBerlinDayKey(new Date(nowMs - latestWeight.dayOffset * MS_PER_DAY))
+    ? dayOffsetToBerlinDayKey(now, latestWeight.dayOffset)
     : null;
   const sameDayBp = latestWeightDay
     ? (pairedSystolicDiastolic.find((entry) => entry.day === latestWeightDay) ??
@@ -338,7 +345,7 @@ export async function generateWeightStatusForUser(
     weightVsSystolic: {
       correlation: weightVsSystolicCorrelation,
       pairs: weightVsSystolicPairs.map((entry) => ({
-        day: toBerlinDayKey(entry.date),
+        day: entry.dayKey,
         weight: round(entry.a, 2),
         systolic: round(entry.b, 2),
       })),
@@ -346,7 +353,7 @@ export async function generateWeightStatusForUser(
     weightVsMeanBloodPressure: {
       correlation: weightVsMeanBpCorrelation,
       pairs: weightVsMeanBpPairs.map((entry) => ({
-        day: toBerlinDayKey(entry.date),
+        day: entry.dayKey,
         weight: round(entry.a, 2),
         meanBloodPressure: round(entry.b, 2),
       })),