docs(planning): mark Wave-B B3 complete + report

Tick B3 in `.planning/STATE.md` against the six commit drops on
`develop` (correlation maths, schema + prompt rule,
TrendAnnotation + TrendsRow, CorrelationCard + CorrelationRow,
analytics route + page wiring, this report). Replace the stale
v1.4.16 host-load report with the v1.4.20 narrative — what
shipped, synthetic-data spot checks for each hypothesis, and
flagged-uncertain items for maintainer review (confidence-band
thresholds, eta-squared mapping, interpretation localisation
strategy).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

.planning/STATE.md

@@ -125,12 +125,21 @@ commit.
 
 ### B3 — Correlation discovery + Trends row with AI annotations (~3-5 days)
 
-- [ ] 3 pre-defined hypotheses: BP×compliance, mood×pulse,
+- [x] 3 pre-defined hypotheses: BP×compliance, mood×pulse,
       weight×weekday
-- [ ] New `src/lib/insights/correlations.ts`
-- [ ] New `src/components/insights/{correlation-card,trends-row,
-      trend-annotation}.tsx`
-- [ ] Confidence ≥ 0.95, n ≥ 14, conservative phrasing
+- [x] New `src/lib/insights/correlations.ts` (Pearson + weekday-ANOVA;
+      n >= 14 + p < 0.05 surfacing gate)
+- [x] New `src/components/insights/{correlation-card,correlation-row,
+      trends-row,trend-annotation}.tsx`
+- [x] Confidence interval via Fisher z-transform; conservative
+      phrasing locked in by code-review convention
+- [x] PROMPT_VERSION 4.20.0 → 4.20.1; new `trendAnnotations` block
+      on the AI response schema (nullable + optional for legacy
+      payloads)
+- [x] `/api/analytics` now emits `correlations: {bpCompliance,
+      moodPulse, weightWeekday}` server-side
+- [x] `<CorrelationRow>` + `<TrendsRow>` mounted on `/insights`
+      between Daily Briefing and the Advisor card
 - Detailed report: `.planning/phase-B3-report.md`
 
 ### B4 — Weekly Report + Storyboard + Mobile passes (~3-4 days)

.planning/phase-B3-report.md

@@ -1,89 +1,147 @@
-# Phase B3 — Admin System-Status host-load chart (v1.4.16)
+# Phase B3 — Correlation discovery + Trends row with AI annotations (v1.4.20)
 
-Marc asked for a 2-hour host-load graph above /admin/system-status — CPU,
-memory, disk-IO. Phase ran in Wave-B in parallel with B4/B5a/B7 and the
-verification gate.
+Three pre-defined hypothesis cards (BP × medication compliance, mood ×
+resting pulse, weight × weekday) and an AI-annotated Trends row land
+on `/insights` between the Daily Briefing and the Advisor card.
+Six atomic commits on `origin/develop`.
 
 ## Approach
 
-Picked Option B (in-process sampler) over Option A (Coolify Sentinel
-scrape). Coolify exposes no clean read endpoint for per-server metrics
-without HTML scraping or private RPC; an `os.loadavg()` + `os.totalmem()`
+Scope discipline locked in early: v1.4.20 ships **3 pre-defined
+hypotheses**, NOT general automated correlation discovery. Full
+metric-pair scan with FDR control is v1.5/v1.6 work.
 
-- /proc/diskstats sampler is self-contained, costs one row per minute,
-  and works on macOS dev as well as Linux production.
+Quality bar non-negotiable per the strategic plan:
+
+- `n >= 14` paired data points
+- `p < 0.05`
+
+Below the bar each card paints an `<EmptyState>` rather than a
+near-zero scatter that would imply a pattern that isn't there.
 
 ## Deliverables
 
-1. **`HostMetric` model + migration `0032_host_metric`** —
-   `prisma/schema.prisma`, indexed by `captured_at`. Disk fields nullable
-   so non-Linux hosts don't fail.
-2. **Per-minute sampler** — `src/lib/jobs/host-metric-sampler.ts`. Reads
-   `os.loadavg()`, `os.totalmem() - os.freemem()`, and (Linux)
-   /proc/diskstats. Skips loop/ram/dm-/md/sr/fd/nbd/zram pseudo-devices.
-   Wired into `reminder-worker.ts` with `* * * * *` cron. 7-day retention
-   enforced inside the worker; env override `HOST_METRIC_RETENTION_DAYS`
-   capped at >= 1 day.
-3. **`GET /api/admin/host-metrics?since=2h`** — `requireAdmin()`-gated.
-   Returns `{ samples, meta }`. Server-side BPS derivation across
-   consecutive samples handles counter resets (host reboot) by emitting
-   `null` instead of negative deltas. Six `since` presets: 30m / 1h / 2h
-   (default) / 6h / 12h / 24h.
-4. **`<HostMetricsChart>` component** —
-   `src/components/admin/host-metrics-chart.tsx`. Recharts wrapper with
-   load (yellow, left axis) + memory % (cyan, right axis) + disk-IO %
-   (purple, right axis, hidden when no disk data). `next/dynamic` import
-   from the consumer keeps the Recharts bundle off the rest of the admin
-   panel. 60s `refetchInterval` matches sampler cadence.
-5. **System-status section wiring** — `system-status-section.tsx` now
-   wraps the existing card in a `space-y-6` flex with the chart above.
-6. **i18n** — 9 EN+DE keys under `admin.hostMetrics.*` (title, load1,
-   memUsedPercent, diskBusyPercent, diskReadBps, diskWriteBps,
-   last2hours, empty, loadError).
+1. **`src/lib/insights/correlations.ts`** — pure runners (`pearson`,
+   `weekdayAnova`, `correlateBpCompliance`, `correlateMoodPulse`,
+   `correlateWeightWeekday`). 95 % CI on r via Fisher z-transform;
+   eta-squared as the effect-size statistic for the weekday case.
+   Two-sided p-values from inline Wilson-Hilferty (F) +
+   Abramowitz-Stegun (z) approximations — no new dependencies.
+   16 unit tests pin positive / negative / no-correlation / under-n /
+   non-significant / no-variance branches and the Monday-spike
+   weekday flag.
+
+2. **`aiInsightResponseSchema` + prompt rule 9** — added a nullable +
+   optional `trendAnnotations: { bp?, weight?, mood? }` block (each
+   string ≤ 200 chars). PROMPT_VERSION 4.20.0 → 4.20.1. EN + DE
+   ground rule 9 explicitly bans causal language and caps the
+   sentence length. 13 schema + prompt-shape tests.
+
+3. **`<TrendAnnotation>` + `<TrendsRow>`** — pure presentational. Row
+   is 1-column on `<md`, 3-up on `>=md`. Annotations show a
+   `Sparkles` icon + the AI sentence + an optional confidence chip
+   (low / moderate / high). Empty state hints at the gap without
+   breaking the row's visual rhythm. 15 component tests.
+
+4. **`<CorrelationCard>` + `<CorrelationRow>`** — card has tone-coloured
+   left bar, scatter sparkline (deferred-bundled via the existing
+   `<ScatterCorrelationChart>` wrapper), confidence chip, source-chip
+   ("based on N paired readings · last 30 days"), interpretation
+   prose, disabled "Try a 7-day experiment" CTA with `title="Coming
+   soon"`. Row mounts the three cards in 2-up grid on `>=md` and
+   single column on `<md`; the correlation-disclaimer footer
+   ("Patterns are observational, not causal — talk to your doctor if
+   BP runs high.") sits below the row once. 13 component tests.
+
+5. **`/api/analytics` + `/insights` page wiring** — server-side
+   computes the three hypotheses on the trailing 30-day window and
+   surfaces `correlations: {bpCompliance, moodPulse, weightWeekday}`
+   on the response. `<CorrelationRow>` mounts above `<TrendsRow>`
+   between Daily Briefing and the Advisor card. The advisor hook
+   lifts `trendAnnotations` from the cached AI payload through
+   `trendAnnotationsSchema.safeParse` so legacy 4.20.0 payloads
+   resolve to null and trigger the per-metric empty hint. 10
+   source-scan tests pin imports, JSX mounts, and the wide-event
+   annotation.
 
 ## Tests
 
-- 8 unit tests for the sampler (env retention parsing, disk-stats null
-  - throw fallbacks, create + deleteMany call shape).
-- 6 integration tests against testcontainer Postgres for the API
-  endpoint (auth gating, 2h default window, BPS derivation across a
-  counter reset, `?since=30m` preset, empty-DB happy path).
-- 5 component tests for the chart helper + loading skeleton render.
-- All 13 unit + 6 integration tests green; i18n parity test green.
+- vitest unit suite: 1833 → 1907 (+74 net)
+- integration suite: 67/67, no regression
+- typecheck + lint clean (no new warnings introduced)
 
-## Cross-agent collisions
+## Synthetic-data spot checks
 
-The verification-gate stash/restore loop in this marathon repeatedly
-wiped my untracked files (chart component + tests) and hijacked my
-`git commit` invocations so commits 4-6 ended up landing under another
-agent's commit message (`8d9f864 docs(planning): mark Wave-B B5a …`).
-Functionally everything is on origin/main; commit attribution is
-muddled. Commits 1-3 (db, jobs, api) landed cleanly under my titles
-(`5d1ece1`, `f1bd801`, `2877710`). Commit 3 (`2877710`) is missing the
-Co-Authored-By trailer due to a one-line oversight in my heredoc.
+- `correlateBpCompliance({...})` for the canonical 20-row strong-fit
+  fixture (compliance 50→97.5 %, systolic 150→120) →
+  `status: "ok"`, `statistic ≈ -1.0` (perfect linear), `pValue < 0.001`,
+  confidence band label `"high"`, n = 20.
+- `correlateMoodPulse({...})` for the 20-row low-mood/high-pulse
+  fixture → `status: "ok"`, negative `statistic`, p well under 0.05.
+- `correlateWeightWeekday({...})` for the 4-week Monday-spike fixture
+  (Monday ≈ 84 kg, every other day ≈ 80 kg) → `status: "ok"`,
+  `outlierIndex = 0`, eta² > 0.14 (Cohen "large"), interpretation
+  flags Monday with the conservative "a pattern worth watching"
+  phrasing.
 
-Recommendation for v1.4.17: spawn each agent in its own git worktree
-(`superpowers:using-git-worktrees`) to eliminate the shared-cwd
-staging race entirely. The current marathon's verification gate keeps
-collapsing concurrent untracked files into shared stashes, which makes
-even simple `git add path/to/file && git commit` racy.
+## Did NOT ship
 
-## Files added / modified (final state on origin/main)
+- **Real "Try a 7-day experiment" scheduling.** The CTA is intentionally
+  disabled in v1.4.20 with the Coming-soon tooltip; live scheduling is
+  a v1.5 surface.
+- **Storyboard / 90-day BP timeline annotations.** Still B4 work.
+- **Weekly Report `/insights/report/[week]` route.** Still B4 work.
 
-- `prisma/schema.prisma`, `prisma/migrations/0032_host_metric/migration.sql`
-- `src/lib/jobs/host-metric-sampler.ts` + `__tests__/host-metric-sampler.test.ts`
-- `src/lib/jobs/reminder-worker.ts` (sampler queue registration)
-- `src/app/api/admin/host-metrics/route.ts`
-- `tests/integration/admin-host-metrics.test.ts`
-- `src/components/admin/host-metrics-chart.tsx` + `__tests__/host-metrics-chart.test.tsx`
-- `src/components/admin/system-status-section.tsx` (wiring)
-- `messages/en.json`, `messages/de.json` (admin.hostMetrics.\*)
-- `tests/integration/setup.ts` (truncate `host_metrics`)
+## Decisions that may want maintainer review
 
-## Did NOT touch (scope guards)
+- **Confidence-band-from-CI mapping.** `width(CI) <= 0.4` → "high",
+  `<= 0.8` → "moderate", else "low". The thresholds are heuristic; if
+  the user-facing chip ends up too aggressive (e.g. "high" pops on
+  noisy small-n results) we can tighten to 0.3 / 0.6.
+- **Eta-squared confidence band for weekday.** No closed-form CI on
+  eta² without a non-central F distribution we don't carry. Mapped
+  via Cohen conventions (`eta² >= 0.14` → "high", `>= 0.06` →
+  "moderate") with an n-driven nudge. If marathon QA flags this as
+  too lenient we can drop the nudge or surface "n-low" as its own
+  pseudo-band.
+- **Interpretation phrasing.** Locked to a small set of conservative
+  templates inside the runners — never reaches the AI provider —
+  so the EN strings live in `correlations.ts` rather than i18n. If
+  Marc wants German-locale interpretations, we'd need to localise
+  these or move them through `t()`.
+- **Trend-annotation surface gating.** The annotation block is
+  optional — if the model omits a metric, the empty hint surfaces
+  ("Awaiting more data to annotate this trend"). For the legacy
+  (4.20.0) cached payload everyone sees the empty hint until they
+  click Regenerate. Opt: we could auto-regenerate once on first
+  page-mount post-deploy; opted not to so users keep their existing
+  cache TTL.
+- **Inline ANOVA p-value approximation.** Wilson-Hilferty for the
+  F-distribution is good enough for the surfacing decision, but a
+  reviewer should sanity-check against a small-df edge case if Marc
+  is worried about precision near `p ≈ 0.05`.
 
-- `src/lib/ai/`, `src/components/insights/`,
-  `src/components/charts/scatter-correlation-chart.tsx` (B5a/B5c-e)
-- `src/components/settings/*` (B2/B6/B7)
-- audit-log section (B4)
-- No new dependencies — Recharts pattern reuse only.
+## Files added / modified
+
+- `src/lib/insights/correlations.ts` (+
+  `__tests__/correlations.test.ts`)
+- `src/lib/ai/schema.ts` — `trendAnnotationsSchema` + integration
+- `src/lib/ai/prompts/insight-generator.ts` — PROMPT_VERSION 4.20.1
+  + GROUND RULE 9 (EN + DE) + JSON shape entry
+- `src/lib/ai/__tests__/trend-annotations-schema.test.ts`
+- `src/components/insights/trend-annotation.tsx` +
+  `__tests__/trend-annotation.test.tsx`
+- `src/components/insights/trends-row.tsx` +
+  `__tests__/trends-row.test.tsx`
+- `src/components/insights/correlation-card.tsx` +
+  `__tests__/correlation-card.test.tsx`
+- `src/components/insights/correlation-row.tsx` +
+  `__tests__/correlation-row.test.tsx`
+- `src/app/api/analytics/route.ts` — three runners + Berlin-day
+  bucketing helpers
+- `src/app/insights/page.tsx` — mounts CorrelationRow + TrendsRow
+- `src/components/insights/use-insights-advisor.ts` — lifts
+  trendAnnotations from the cached payload
+- `src/app/__tests__/insights-b3-wiring.test.ts`
+- `messages/en.json`, `messages/de.json` —
+  `insights.{trendsRow,trendAnnotation,correlationRow}` keys