diff --git a/messages/de.json b/messages/de.json
index 10928eb92..bc196e448 100644
--- a/messages/de.json
+++ b/messages/de.json
@@ -2632,7 +2632,15 @@
       "coincident": {
         "label": "Mehrere Vitalwerte außerhalb der Baseline",
         "summary": "{count} deiner Vitalwerte lagen heute außerhalb ihres persönlichen Bereichs.",
-        "vitals": "Außerhalb des Bereichs: {list}"
+        "vitals": "Außerhalb des Bereichs: {list}",
+        "cardTitle": "Signal des Tages",
+        "allClear": "Alle deine Vitalwerte liegen heute in ihrem persönlichen Bereich.",
+        "allClearMeta": "{count} deiner Vitalwerte gegen deinen eigenen typischen Bereich geprüft.",
+        "watch": "Ein Vitalwert liegt heute außerhalb seines üblichen Bereichs.",
+        "watchVital": "Außerhalb des Bereichs: {vital}. Oft nur einmalig — behalte es in den nächsten Tagen im Blick.",
+        "firedHeadline": "{count} deiner Vitalwerte liegen heute außerhalb ihres persönlichen Bereichs.",
+        "factors": "Mögliche Faktoren — nie eine Ursache: ein hartes Training, schlechter Schlaf, Alkohol, Höhe, Stress oder Krankheit. Das ist ein Hinweis aus deinen eigenen Baselines, keine Diagnose.",
+        "building": "Deine persönlichen Baselines entstehen — erfasse ein paar Tage mehr, dann erscheint dies."
       }
     },
     "cardioFitness": {
diff --git a/messages/en.json b/messages/en.json
index 84e8cfc5c..441fb7fd6 100644
--- a/messages/en.json
+++ b/messages/en.json
@@ -2632,7 +2632,15 @@
       "coincident": {
         "label": "Several vitals off baseline",
         "summary": "{count} of your vitals sat outside their personal range today.",
-        "vitals": "Outside range: {list}"
+        "vitals": "Outside range: {list}",
+        "cardTitle": "Today's signal",
+        "allClear": "All your vitals are within their personal range today.",
+        "allClearMeta": "Checked {count} of your vitals against your own typical range.",
+        "watch": "One vital is outside its usual range today.",
+        "watchVital": "Outside range: {vital}. Often just a one-off — worth a glance over the next few days.",
+        "firedHeadline": "{count} of your vitals are outside their personal range today.",
+        "factors": "Possible factors — never a cause: a hard workout, poor sleep, alcohol, altitude, stress, or illness. This is awareness from your own baselines, not a diagnosis.",
+        "building": "Building your personal baselines — track a few more days and this will appear."
       }
     },
     "cardioFitness": {
diff --git a/messages/es.json b/messages/es.json
index e6741d045..a8a352afa 100644
--- a/messages/es.json
+++ b/messages/es.json
@@ -2632,7 +2632,15 @@
       "coincident": {
         "label": "Varias constantes fuera de la base",
         "summary": "Hoy, {count} de tus constantes quedaron fuera de su rango personal.",
-        "vitals": "Fuera de rango: {list}"
+        "vitals": "Fuera de rango: {list}",
+        "cardTitle": "Señal de hoy",
+        "allClear": "Hoy todas tus constantes están dentro de su rango personal.",
+        "allClearMeta": "Se revisaron {count} de tus constantes frente a tu propio rango habitual.",
+        "watch": "Hoy una constante está fuera de su rango habitual.",
+        "watchVital": "Fuera de rango: {vital}. A menudo es algo puntual; conviene vigilarlo los próximos días.",
+        "firedHeadline": "Hoy, {count} de tus constantes están fuera de su rango personal.",
+        "factors": "Posibles factores, nunca una causa: un entrenamiento intenso, dormir mal, alcohol, altitud, estrés o una enfermedad. Es un aviso a partir de tus propias bases, no un diagnóstico.",
+        "building": "Construyendo tus bases personales: registra unos días más y esto aparecerá."
       }
     },
     "cardioFitness": {
diff --git a/messages/fr.json b/messages/fr.json
index 79b4a3195..87906de30 100644
--- a/messages/fr.json
+++ b/messages/fr.json
@@ -2632,7 +2632,15 @@
       "coincident": {
         "label": "Plusieurs constantes hors référence",
         "summary": "Aujourd’hui, {count} de vos constantes sont sorties de leur plage personnelle.",
-        "vitals": "Hors plage : {list}"
+        "vitals": "Hors plage : {list}",
+        "cardTitle": "Signal du jour",
+        "allClear": "Aujourd’hui, toutes vos constantes sont dans leur plage personnelle.",
+        "allClearMeta": "{count} de vos constantes vérifiées par rapport à votre propre plage habituelle.",
+        "watch": "Aujourd’hui, une constante est hors de sa plage habituelle.",
+        "watchVital": "Hors plage : {vital}. Souvent ponctuel — à surveiller ces prochains jours.",
+        "firedHeadline": "Aujourd’hui, {count} de vos constantes sont hors de leur plage personnelle.",
+        "factors": "Facteurs possibles — jamais une cause : un entraînement intense, un mauvais sommeil, l’alcool, l’altitude, le stress ou une maladie. C’est un repère issu de vos propres références, pas un diagnostic.",
+        "building": "Construction de vos références personnelles — enregistrez quelques jours de plus et cela apparaîtra."
       }
     },
     "cardioFitness": {
diff --git a/messages/it.json b/messages/it.json
index be4f32660..5ca6bd9d5 100644
--- a/messages/it.json
+++ b/messages/it.json
@@ -2632,7 +2632,15 @@
       "coincident": {
         "label": "Più parametri fuori dalla base",
         "summary": "Oggi {count} dei tuoi parametri vitali sono usciti dal loro intervallo personale.",
-        "vitals": "Fuori intervallo: {list}"
+        "vitals": "Fuori intervallo: {list}",
+        "cardTitle": "Segnale di oggi",
+        "allClear": "Oggi tutti i tuoi parametri vitali sono nel loro intervallo personale.",
+        "allClearMeta": "Controllati {count} dei tuoi parametri rispetto al tuo intervallo abituale.",
+        "watch": "Oggi un parametro è fuori dal suo intervallo abituale.",
+        "watchVital": "Fuori intervallo: {vital}. Spesso è un episodio isolato — tienilo d’occhio nei prossimi giorni.",
+        "firedHeadline": "Oggi {count} dei tuoi parametri vitali sono fuori dal loro intervallo personale.",
+        "factors": "Possibili fattori — mai una causa: un allenamento intenso, poco sonno, alcol, altitudine, stress o una malattia. È un avviso basato sui tuoi parametri, non una diagnosi.",
+        "building": "Stiamo costruendo i tuoi riferimenti personali — registra ancora qualche giorno e comparirà."
       }
     },
     "cardioFitness": {
diff --git a/messages/pl.json b/messages/pl.json
index acbf89332..f42013120 100644
--- a/messages/pl.json
+++ b/messages/pl.json
@@ -2632,7 +2632,15 @@
       "coincident": {
         "label": "Kilka parametrów poza bazą",
         "summary": "Dziś {count} Twoich parametrów życiowych znalazło się poza osobistym zakresem.",
-        "vitals": "Poza zakresem: {list}"
+        "vitals": "Poza zakresem: {list}",
+        "cardTitle": "Sygnał dnia",
+        "allClear": "Dziś wszystkie Twoje parametry życiowe mieszczą się w osobistym zakresie.",
+        "allClearMeta": "Sprawdzono {count} Twoich parametrów względem Twojego typowego zakresu.",
+        "watch": "Dziś jeden parametr jest poza swoim zwykłym zakresem.",
+        "watchVital": "Poza zakresem: {vital}. Często to jednorazowy odczyt — warto obserwować przez kilka dni.",
+        "firedHeadline": "Dziś {count} Twoich parametrów życiowych jest poza osobistym zakresem.",
+        "factors": "Możliwe czynniki — nigdy przyczyna: intensywny trening, słaby sen, alkohol, wysokość, stres lub choroba. To wskazówka z Twoich własnych baz, nie diagnoza.",
+        "building": "Budujemy Twoje osobiste bazy — zarejestruj jeszcze kilka dni, a to się pojawi."
       }
     },
     "cardioFitness": {
diff --git a/src/app/insights/page.tsx b/src/app/insights/page.tsx
index 1302c484c..df65d17cd 100644
--- a/src/app/insights/page.tsx
+++ b/src/app/insights/page.tsx
@@ -97,6 +97,24 @@ const RhythmEventsCard = dynamic(
     })),
   { ssr: false },
 );
+// v1.10.3 — "Today's signal" headline card. Promotes COINCIDENT_DEVIATION from
+// a buried below-the-fold tile to the top-of-overview daily read (the
+// always-present Apple/WHOOP/Oura pattern). Deferred behind `next/dynamic`; it
+// owns its own derived-metric query and renders four calm states. A
+// fixed-height skeleton matches the resolved card so the top of the page does
+// not shift while the chunk + data resolve.
+const CoincidentDeviationCard = dynamic(
+  () =>
+    import("@/components/insights/coincident-deviation-card").then((mod) => ({
+      default: mod.CoincidentDeviationCard,
+    })),
+  {
+    ssr: false,
+    loading: () => (
+      <div className="bg-card border-border h-[7.5rem] animate-pulse rounded-xl border motion-reduce:animate-none" />
+    ),
+  },
+);
 
 /**
  * v1.4.25 W4d — Insights mother page.
@@ -246,6 +264,8 @@ export default function InsightsPage() {
         healthScore={analytics?.healthScore ?? undefined}
       />
 
+      <CoincidentDeviationCard enabled={isAuthenticated} />
+
       <div className="flex justify-end">
         <Button
           size="sm"
diff --git a/src/components/insights/__tests__/coincident-deviation-card.test.tsx b/src/components/insights/__tests__/coincident-deviation-card.test.tsx
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..ee444c618
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/components/insights/__tests__/coincident-deviation-card.test.tsx
@@ -0,0 +1,194 @@
+import { describe, it, expect, vi, beforeEach } from "vitest";
+import { renderToStaticMarkup } from "react-dom/server";
+
+import { I18nProvider } from "@/lib/i18n/context";
+import type { DerivedMetricResponse } from "@/components/insights/derived/use-derived-metric";
+import type { CoincidentDeviationValue } from "@/lib/insights/derived/coincident-deviation";
+
+// Drive the card by stubbing the single derived-metric hook it reads.
+const useDerivedMetric = vi.fn();
+vi.mock("@/components/insights/derived/use-derived-metric", () => ({
+  useDerivedMetric: (...a: unknown[]) => useDerivedMetric(...a),
+}));
+// The provenance explainer pulls a mobile flag + the i18n context; render it
+// in its desktop (Popover) form for the static markup so its trigger is in the
+// tree. The card test only asserts the trigger is present, not its open state.
+vi.mock("@/hooks/use-is-mobile", () => ({ useIsMobile: () => false }));
+
+import { CoincidentDeviationCard } from "../coincident-deviation-card";
+
+function render(node: React.ReactNode) {
+  return renderToStaticMarkup(
+    <I18nProvider initialLocale="en">{node}</I18nProvider>,
+  );
+}
+
+type Resp = DerivedMetricResponse<CoincidentDeviationValue>;
+
+function deviation(
+  type: string,
+  outside: boolean,
+): CoincidentDeviationValue["vitals"][number] {
+  return {
+    type: type as never,
+    value: outside ? 70 : 55,
+    center: 55,
+    low: 48,
+    high: 62,
+    outside,
+    direction: outside ? "above" : "in",
+  };
+}
+
+function ok(
+  value: CoincidentDeviationValue,
+  band: "high" | "medium" | "low" | "draft" = "high",
+): Resp {
+  return {
+    metric: "COINCIDENT_DEVIATION",
+    status: "ok",
+    value,
+    coverage: { requiredInputs: 5, presentInputs: 5, historyDays: 30, missing: [] },
+    confidence: { score: 90, band },
+    provenance: {
+      inputs: ["RESTING_HEART_RATE", "RESPIRATORY_RATE"],
+      source: "DAY",
+      windowDays: 30,
+      computedAt: "2026-06-03T00:00:00.000Z",
+    },
+    reason: null,
+  };
+}
+
+function insufficient(): Resp {
+  return {
+    metric: "COINCIDENT_DEVIATION",
+    status: "insufficient",
+    value: null,
+    coverage: { requiredInputs: 2, presentInputs: 1, historyDays: 0, missing: [] },
+    confidence: null,
+    provenance: {
+      inputs: ["RESTING_HEART_RATE"],
+      source: "live",
+      windowDays: 30,
+      computedAt: "2026-06-03T00:00:00.000Z",
+    },
+    reason: "too_few_banded_vitals",
+  };
+}
+
+function mock(data: Resp | undefined) {
+  useDerivedMetric.mockReturnValue({ data });
+}
+
+beforeEach(() => vi.clearAllMocks());
+
+describe("<CoincidentDeviationCard>", () => {
+  it("renders a CLS-safe skeleton while the read is in flight", () => {
+    mock(undefined);
+    const html = render(<CoincidentDeviationCard />);
+    expect(html).toContain('data-slot="coincident-deviation-card-skeleton"');
+    expect(html).not.toContain('data-slot="coincident-deviation-card"');
+  });
+
+  it("renders the insufficient (building baselines) state, never an alarm", () => {
+    mock(insufficient());
+    const html = render(<CoincidentDeviationCard />);
+    expect(html).toContain('data-state="insufficient"');
+    expect(html).toContain('data-slot="coincident-building"');
+    expect(html).toContain('data-slot="coverage-meter"');
+    // Calm, not amber/red.
+    expect(html).not.toContain("border-warning");
+    expect(html).not.toContain("text-destructive");
+  });
+
+  it("renders the all-clear state with the count checked", () => {
+    mock(
+      ok({
+        fired: false,
+        day: "2026-06-03",
+        vitals: [deviation("RESTING_HEART_RATE", false), deviation("WEIGHT", false)],
+        contributing: [],
+      }),
+    );
+    const html = render(<CoincidentDeviationCard />);
+    expect(html).toContain('data-state="all-clear"');
+    expect(html).toContain("All your vitals are within their personal range");
+    expect(html).toContain("text-success");
+    // No alarm tone.
+    expect(html).not.toContain("border-warning");
+    expect(html).not.toContain("text-destructive");
+  });
+
+  it("renders the watch state for a single out-of-band vital, not the fired tone", () => {
+    mock(
+      ok({
+        fired: false,
+        day: "2026-06-03",
+        vitals: [deviation("RESTING_HEART_RATE", true), deviation("WEIGHT", false)],
+        contributing: [deviation("RESTING_HEART_RATE", true)],
+      }),
+    );
+    const html = render(<CoincidentDeviationCard />);
+    expect(html).toContain('data-state="watch"');
+    expect(html).toContain("One vital is outside its usual range");
+    // Watch never uses the fired/alert border or red.
+    expect(html).not.toContain("border-warning");
+    expect(html).not.toContain("text-destructive");
+  });
+
+  it("renders the fired state with the named vitals + the possible-factors line", () => {
+    mock(
+      ok({
+        fired: true,
+        day: "2026-06-03",
+        vitals: [
+          deviation("RESTING_HEART_RATE", true),
+          deviation("RESPIRATORY_RATE", true),
+        ],
+        contributing: [
+          deviation("RESTING_HEART_RATE", true),
+          deviation("RESPIRATORY_RATE", true),
+        ],
+      }),
+    );
+    const html = render(<CoincidentDeviationCard />);
+    expect(html).toContain('data-state="fired"');
+    expect(html).toContain('data-slot="coincident-factors"');
+    // The load-bearing framing line.
+    expect(html).toContain("Possible factors — never a cause");
+    expect(html).toContain("not a diagnosis");
+    // At most amber — never destructive/red.
+    expect(html).toContain("border-warning");
+    expect(html).not.toContain("text-destructive");
+    // The provenance affordance reaches the card.
+    expect(html).toContain('data-slot="provenance-explainer-trigger"');
+  });
+
+  it("softens a fired flag to the watch tone when history is thin", () => {
+    mock(
+      ok(
+        {
+          fired: true,
+          day: "2026-06-03",
+          vitals: [
+            deviation("RESTING_HEART_RATE", true),
+            deviation("RESPIRATORY_RATE", true),
+          ],
+          contributing: [
+            deviation("RESTING_HEART_RATE", true),
+            deviation("RESPIRATORY_RATE", true),
+          ],
+        },
+        "low",
+      ),
+    );
+    const html = render(<CoincidentDeviationCard />);
+    // Two contributing + fired, but thin history → watch tone, not fired.
+    expect(html).toContain('data-state="watch"');
+    expect(html).not.toContain('data-state="fired"');
+    expect(html).not.toContain("border-warning");
+    // The coverage meter accompanies the softened flag.
+    expect(html).toContain('data-slot="coverage-meter"');
+  });
+});
diff --git a/src/components/insights/coincident-deviation-card.tsx b/src/components/insights/coincident-deviation-card.tsx
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..b7a5619a1
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/components/insights/coincident-deviation-card.tsx
@@ -0,0 +1,284 @@
+"use client";
+
+import { CheckCircle2, AlertTriangle, Activity } from "lucide-react";
+
+import { useTranslations } from "@/lib/i18n/context";
+import { cn } from "@/lib/utils";
+import { MEASUREMENT_TYPE_LABEL_KEYS } from "@/components/measurements/measurement-list-meta";
+import { CoverageMeter } from "@/components/insights/derived/coverage-meter";
+import { ProvenanceExplainer } from "@/components/insights/derived/provenance-explainer";
+import { METRIC_PROVENANCE } from "@/components/insights/derived/standards";
+import { useDerivedMetric } from "@/components/insights/derived/use-derived-metric";
+// Type-only — the compute payload never drags the server graph into the bundle
+// (the v1.9.0 lesson, mirrored at vitals-dashboard.tsx).
+import type { CoincidentDeviationValue } from "@/lib/insights/derived/coincident-deviation";
+import type { DerivedProvenance } from "@/lib/insights/derived/types";
+
+/**
+ * v1.10.3 — "Today's signal" headline card.
+ *
+ * Promotes the COINCIDENT_DEVIATION flag from one buried below-the-fold vitals
+ * tile (painted only when it fired) to a dedicated, always-mounted card at the
+ * top of the Insights overview, matching the always-present pattern Apple
+ * Vitals / WHOOP Health Monitor / Oura Symptom Radar use. The signal is the
+ * daily headline read, not an alarm: an "all clear" day is itself the
+ * reassuring product.
+ *
+ * It renders four calm states off the SINGLE existing `Derived` payload — no
+ * new engine math, no new route, no schema change:
+ *   - insufficient (< 2 banded vitals) → "building your baselines" + coverage.
+ *   - all-clear (ok, !fired, 0 contributing) → a green check + the count
+ *     checked.
+ *   - watch (ok, !fired, 1 contributing) → a calm, non-alert line naming the
+ *     one vital.
+ *   - fired (ok, fired, ≥ 2 contributing) → an amber awareness card naming the
+ *     vitals + the load-bearing "possible factors — never a cause" line.
+ *
+ * Restraint guarantees: at most the `warning` (amber) band — never
+ * `destructive`/red, never a score, never a chart (so no Recharts), never a
+ * push. When `confidence.band` is thin (low/draft) the fired tone is softened
+ * to the watch tone + the coverage meter, so a multi-signal flag from too
+ * little history never reads as a confident verdict.
+ */
+
+const COINCIDENT_METRIC = "COINCIDENT_DEVIATION";
+
+interface CoincidentDeviationCardProps {
+  /** Gate the underlying derived-metric read (e.g. on the auth flag). */
+  enabled?: boolean;
+  className?: string;
+}
+
+/** The four calm visual states, derived from the single payload. */
+type SignalState = "insufficient" | "all-clear" | "watch" | "fired";
+
+/** The provenance ⓘ explainer for the coincident flag, wired from the map. */
+function CoincidentProvenance({
+  provenance,
+}: {
+  provenance: DerivedProvenance;
+}) {
+  const { t } = useTranslations();
+  const meta = METRIC_PROVENANCE.COINCIDENT_DEVIATION;
+  const method = (
+    <>
+      {meta.caveatKey ? (
+        <span className="text-warning block font-medium">
+          {t(meta.caveatKey)}
+        </span>
+      ) : null}
+      {t(meta.methodKey)}
+    </>
+  );
+  return (
+    <ProvenanceExplainer
+      provenance={provenance}
+      method={method}
+      standard={meta.standard}
+    />
+  );
+}
+
+/**
+ * The card shell — uppercase label + the provenance affordance, with the
+ * state-specific body as children. Keeps every state on one card geometry so
+ * the page reserves a stable footprint.
+ */
+function CardShell({
+  state,
+  provenance,
+  children,
+}: {
+  state: SignalState;
+  provenance?: DerivedProvenance;
+  children: React.ReactNode;
+}) {
+  const { t } = useTranslations();
+  return (
+    <div
+      data-slot="coincident-deviation-card"
+      data-state={state}
+      className={cn(
+        "bg-card flex w-full min-w-0 flex-col gap-2 rounded-xl border p-4 md:p-6",
+        // At most amber — never destructive/red. The fired state borders
+        // warning; every calmer state keeps the neutral card border.
+        state === "fired" ? "border-warning/40" : "border-border",
+      )}
+    >
+      <div className="flex items-center justify-between gap-2">
+        <span className="text-muted-foreground truncate text-xs font-medium tracking-wide uppercase">
+          {t("insights.derived.coincident.cardTitle")}
+        </span>
+        {provenance ? <CoincidentProvenance provenance={provenance} /> : null}
+      </div>
+      {children}
+    </div>
+  );
+}
+
+/** A fixed-footprint skeleton matching the resolved card (CLS-safe). */
+function CardSkeleton() {
+  return (
+    <div
+      data-slot="coincident-deviation-card-skeleton"
+      aria-hidden="true"
+      className="bg-card border-border flex w-full min-w-0 flex-col gap-3 rounded-xl border p-4 md:p-6"
+    >
+      <div className="bg-muted/40 h-3 w-28 rounded" />
+      <div className="bg-muted/40 h-5 w-3/4 rounded" />
+      <div className="bg-muted/40 h-3 w-1/2 rounded" />
+    </div>
+  );
+}
+
+export function CoincidentDeviationCard({
+  enabled = true,
+  className,
+}: CoincidentDeviationCardProps) {
+  const { t } = useTranslations();
+  const { data } = useDerivedMetric<CoincidentDeviationValue>(
+    COINCIDENT_METRIC,
+    { enabled },
+  );
+
+  // CLS-safe placeholder while the single read is in flight.
+  if (!data) {
+    return (
+      <div className={className}>
+        <CardSkeleton />
+      </div>
+    );
+  }
+
+  // Building the baselines — fewer than two banded vitals. Calm, never an
+  // alarm, never blank.
+  if (data.status === "insufficient") {
+    return (
+      <div className={className}>
+        <CardShell state="insufficient" provenance={data.provenance}>
+          <p
+            className="text-muted-foreground text-sm"
+            data-slot="coincident-building"
+          >
+            {t("insights.derived.coincident.building")}
+          </p>
+          <CoverageMeter coverage={data.coverage} />
+        </CardShell>
+      </div>
+    );
+  }
+
+  const v = data.value!;
+  const contributing = v.contributing;
+  const names = contributing
+    .map((d) => {
+      const labelKey = MEASUREMENT_TYPE_LABEL_KEYS[d.type];
+      return labelKey ? t(labelKey) : d.type;
+    })
+    .join(", ");
+
+  // Thin history behind the deepest contributing vital → soften a fired flag
+  // to the watch tone rather than presenting a confident multi-signal verdict
+  // from too little data. Read straight off the existing payload.
+  const band = data.confidence?.band;
+  const thinHistory = band === "low" || band === "draft";
+
+  // Map the single payload onto one of the four calm states.
+  const state: SignalState =
+    contributing.length === 0
+      ? "all-clear"
+      : v.fired && contributing.length >= 2 && !thinHistory
+        ? "fired"
+        : "watch";
+
+  if (state === "all-clear") {
+    return (
+      <div className={className}>
+        <CardShell state="all-clear" provenance={data.provenance}>
+          <div className="flex items-start gap-2">
+            <CheckCircle2
+              className="text-success mt-0.5 h-4 w-4 shrink-0"
+              aria-hidden="true"
+            />
+            <div className="min-w-0 space-y-1">
+              <p
+                className="text-foreground text-sm font-medium"
+                data-slot="coincident-headline"
+              >
+                {t("insights.derived.coincident.allClear")}
+              </p>
+              <p className="text-muted-foreground text-xs leading-snug">
+                {t("insights.derived.coincident.allClearMeta", {
+                  count: v.vitals.length,
+                })}
+              </p>
+            </div>
+          </div>
+        </CardShell>
+      </div>
+    );
+  }
+
+  if (state === "watch") {
+    return (
+      <div className={className}>
+        <CardShell state="watch" provenance={data.provenance}>
+          <div className="flex items-start gap-2">
+            <Activity
+              className="text-muted-foreground mt-0.5 h-4 w-4 shrink-0"
+              aria-hidden="true"
+            />
+            <div className="min-w-0 space-y-1">
+              <p
+                className="text-foreground text-sm font-medium"
+                data-slot="coincident-headline"
+              >
+                {t("insights.derived.coincident.watch")}
+              </p>
+              <p className="text-muted-foreground text-xs leading-snug">
+                {t("insights.derived.coincident.watchVital", { vital: names })}
+              </p>
+            </div>
+          </div>
+          {thinHistory ? <CoverageMeter coverage={data.coverage} /> : null}
+        </CardShell>
+      </div>
+    );
+  }
+
+  // fired — amber awareness, named vitals, possible-factors line (mandatory).
+  return (
+    <div className={className}>
+      <CardShell state="fired" provenance={data.provenance}>
+        <div className="flex items-start gap-2">
+          <AlertTriangle
+            className="text-warning mt-0.5 h-4 w-4 shrink-0"
+            aria-hidden="true"
+          />
+          <div className="min-w-0 space-y-1">
+            <p
+              className="text-foreground text-sm font-medium"
+              data-slot="coincident-headline"
+            >
+              {t("insights.derived.coincident.firedHeadline", {
+                count: contributing.length,
+              })}
+            </p>
+            <p
+              className="text-muted-foreground text-xs leading-snug"
+              data-slot="coincident-vitals"
+            >
+              {t("insights.derived.coincident.vitals", { list: names })}
+            </p>
+          </div>
+        </div>
+        <p
+          className="text-muted-foreground text-xs leading-snug"
+          data-slot="coincident-factors"
+        >
+          {t("insights.derived.coincident.factors")}
+        </p>
+      </CardShell>
+    </div>
+  );
+}
diff --git a/src/components/insights/derived/__tests__/vitals-dashboard.test.tsx b/src/components/insights/derived/__tests__/vitals-dashboard.test.tsx
index b87746fdb..624406ba1 100644
--- a/src/components/insights/derived/__tests__/vitals-dashboard.test.tsx
+++ b/src/components/insights/derived/__tests__/vitals-dashboard.test.tsx
@@ -173,36 +173,16 @@ describe("<VitalsDashboard>", () => {
     expect(html).not.toContain('data-metric="BMI"');
   });
 
-  it("surfaces the coincident-deviation flag when it fired", () => {
+  it("does not read the coincident-deviation flag (now the top-of-overview card)", () => {
+    // The flag moved to the dedicated `CoincidentDeviationCard`; the dashboard
+    // batch no longer requests it and the grid never paints it.
+    let requestedCoincident = false;
     mockBatch((token) => {
-      if (token.metric === "COINCIDENT_DEVIATION") {
-        return ok({
-          fired: true,
-          day: "2026-06-02",
-          vitals: [],
-          contributing: [
-            { type: "RESTING_HEART_RATE", value: 70, center: 55, low: 48, high: 62, outside: true, direction: "above" },
-            { type: "RESPIRATORY_RATE", value: 20, center: 14, low: 12, high: 16, outside: true, direction: "above" },
-          ],
-        });
-      }
-      return insufficient("no_readings_in_window");
-    });
-    const html = render(<VitalsDashboard />);
-    expect(html).toContain('data-metric="COINCIDENT_DEVIATION"');
-    expect(html).toContain('data-state="fired"');
-    // The provenance affordance reaches the flag.
-    expect(html).toContain('data-slot="provenance-explainer-trigger"');
-  });
-
-  it("hides the coincident-deviation flag when it did not fire", () => {
-    mockBatch((token) => {
-      if (token.metric === "COINCIDENT_DEVIATION") {
-        return ok({ fired: false, day: "2026-06-02", vitals: [], contributing: [] });
-      }
+      if (token.metric === "COINCIDENT_DEVIATION") requestedCoincident = true;
       return insufficient("no_readings_in_window");
     });
     const html = render(<VitalsDashboard />);
+    expect(requestedCoincident).toBe(false);
     expect(html).not.toContain('data-metric="COINCIDENT_DEVIATION"');
   });
 });
diff --git a/src/components/insights/derived/vitals-dashboard.tsx b/src/components/insights/derived/vitals-dashboard.tsx
index 8f16c0b2d..cc98de22e 100644
--- a/src/components/insights/derived/vitals-dashboard.tsx
+++ b/src/components/insights/derived/vitals-dashboard.tsx
@@ -29,9 +29,7 @@ import type { FitnessAgeValue } from "@/lib/insights/derived/fitness-age";
 import type { VascularAgeDeltaValue } from "@/lib/insights/derived/vascular-age";
 import type { HrvBalanceValue } from "@/lib/insights/derived/hrv-balance";
 import type { BmiValue } from "@/lib/insights/derived/bmi";
-import type { CoincidentDeviationValue } from "@/lib/insights/derived/coincident-deviation";
 import type { DerivedProvenance } from "@/lib/insights/derived/types";
-import { AlertTriangle } from "lucide-react";
 
 /**
  * v1.10.0 — the Vitals dashboard surface (Apple-Health-Highlights grid).
@@ -358,59 +356,6 @@ function BmiTile({ read, isLoading }: TileProps) {
   );
 }
 
-/**
- * Coincident-deviation flag tile — surfaces ONLY when the flag fired today
- * (≥ N vitals outside their personal band on the same day). Lists the
- * contributing vitals as plain text and carries the provenance affordance
- * (the Hampel/Leys median ± k·MAD basis + the descriptive-not-clinical
- * caveat). When the flag has not fired the tile un-mounts entirely — never
- * an alarming empty card.
- */
-function CoincidentDeviationTile({ read, isLoading }: TileProps) {
-  const { t } = useTranslations();
-  const data = read<CoincidentDeviationValue>({
-    metric: "COINCIDENT_DEVIATION",
-  });
-  if (isLoading || !data || data.status !== "ok" || !data.value) return null;
-  const v = data.value;
-  if (!v.fired || v.contributing.length === 0) return null;
-
-  const names = v.contributing
-    .map((d) => {
-      const labelKey = MEASUREMENT_TYPE_LABEL_KEYS[d.type];
-      return labelKey ? t(labelKey) : d.type;
-    })
-    .join(", ");
-
-  return (
-    <div
-      data-slot="vitals-tile"
-      data-metric="COINCIDENT_DEVIATION"
-      data-state="fired"
-      className="bg-card border-warning/40 flex h-full w-full min-w-0 flex-col gap-2 rounded-xl border p-4 md:p-6"
-    >
-      <div className="flex items-center justify-between gap-2">
-        <span className="text-muted-foreground truncate text-xs font-medium tracking-wide uppercase">
-          {t("insights.derived.coincident.label")}
-        </span>
-        <MetricProvenance
-          metric="COINCIDENT_DEVIATION"
-          provenance={data.provenance}
-        />
-        <AlertTriangle className="text-warning h-4 w-4 shrink-0" />
-      </div>
-      <p className="text-foreground text-sm" data-slot="coincident-summary">
-        {t("insights.derived.coincident.summary", {
-          count: v.contributing.length,
-        })}
-      </p>
-      <p className="text-muted-foreground text-xs leading-snug">
-        {t("insights.derived.coincident.vitals", { list: names })}
-      </p>
-    </div>
-  );
-}
-
 /**
  * A loading placeholder occupying the resolved tile footprint so the grid
  * reserves its final height and the real tiles drop in without a layout
@@ -442,17 +387,6 @@ function VitalsTileSkeleton() {
  * above — if a new tile gate changes, reflect it here.
  */
 function hasRenderableVital(read: DerivedBatchRead): boolean {
-  const coincident = read<CoincidentDeviationValue>({
-    metric: "COINCIDENT_DEVIATION",
-  });
-  if (
-    coincident?.status === "ok" &&
-    coincident.value?.fired &&
-    coincident.value.contributing.length > 0
-  ) {
-    return true;
-  }
-
   const fitness = read<FitnessAgeValue>({ metric: "FITNESS_AGE" });
   if (fitness?.status === "ok" && fitness.value) return true;
 
@@ -492,8 +426,10 @@ function hasRenderableVital(read: DerivedBatchRead): boolean {
 
 /**
  * The full set of tokens the dashboard reads in one batch — the five
- * wellness scores + the four derived re-frames + the coincident-deviation
- * flag + one baseline per vital (minus HRV, which has its own balance tile).
+ * wellness scores + the four derived re-frames + one baseline per vital
+ * (minus HRV, which has its own balance tile). The coincident-deviation
+ * flag is no longer read here: it is now the dedicated "Today's signal"
+ * card at the top of the overview (`CoincidentDeviationCard`).
  */
 function dashboardTokens(): DerivedBatchToken[] {
   const tokens: DerivedBatchToken[] = [
@@ -506,7 +442,6 @@ function dashboardTokens(): DerivedBatchToken[] {
     { metric: "VASCULAR_AGE_DELTA" },
     { metric: "HRV_BALANCE" },
     { metric: "BMI" },
-    { metric: "COINCIDENT_DEVIATION" },
   ];
   for (const type of SECTION_VITALS) {
     if (type === "HEART_RATE_VARIABILITY") continue;
@@ -604,7 +539,6 @@ export function VitalsDashboard({ enabled = true, className }: DashboardProps) {
               ))
             ) : (
               <>
-                <CoincidentDeviationTile {...tileProps} />
                 <FitnessAgeTile {...tileProps} />
                 <VascularAgeTile {...tileProps} />
                 <HrvBalanceTile {...tileProps} />