diff --git a/src/app/insights/page.tsx b/src/app/insights/page.tsx
index df65d17cd..5e13eae83 100644
--- a/src/app/insights/page.tsx
+++ b/src/app/insights/page.tsx
@@ -100,9 +100,10 @@ const RhythmEventsCard = dynamic(
 // v1.10.3 — "Today's signal" headline card. Promotes COINCIDENT_DEVIATION from
 // a buried below-the-fold tile to the top-of-overview daily read (the
 // always-present Apple/WHOOP/Oura pattern). Deferred behind `next/dynamic`; it
-// owns its own derived-metric query and renders four calm states. A
-// fixed-height skeleton matches the resolved card so the top of the page does
-// not shift while the chunk + data resolve.
+// owns its own derived-metric query and renders four calm states. The chunk
+// loader's skeleton shares the card's `min-h-48` footprint (and the in-card
+// `CardSkeleton` matches it too) so the top of the page does not shift across
+// loading → any resolved state. Decorative → `aria-hidden`.
 const CoincidentDeviationCard = dynamic(
   () =>
     import("@/components/insights/coincident-deviation-card").then((mod) => ({
@@ -111,7 +112,10 @@ const CoincidentDeviationCard = dynamic(
   {
     ssr: false,
     loading: () => (
-      <div className="bg-card border-border h-[7.5rem] animate-pulse rounded-xl border motion-reduce:animate-none" />
+      <div
+        aria-hidden="true"
+        className="bg-card border-border min-h-48 animate-pulse rounded-xl border motion-reduce:animate-none"
+      />
     ),
   },
 );
diff --git a/src/components/insights/__tests__/coincident-deviation-card.test.tsx b/src/components/insights/__tests__/coincident-deviation-card.test.tsx
index ee444c618..d4fb07e8e 100644
--- a/src/components/insights/__tests__/coincident-deviation-card.test.tsx
+++ b/src/components/insights/__tests__/coincident-deviation-card.test.tsx
@@ -89,6 +89,30 @@ describe("<CoincidentDeviationCard>", () => {
     const html = render(<CoincidentDeviationCard />);
     expect(html).toContain('data-slot="coincident-deviation-card-skeleton"');
     expect(html).not.toContain('data-slot="coincident-deviation-card"');
+    // The skeleton reserves the resolved card's footprint (no downward shift).
+    expect(html).toContain("min-h-48");
+  });
+
+  it("the skeleton and a resolved card share the same min-height footprint", () => {
+    mock(undefined);
+    const skeleton = render(<CoincidentDeviationCard />);
+    mock(
+      ok({
+        fired: true,
+        day: "2026-06-03",
+        vitals: [
+          deviation("RESTING_HEART_RATE", true),
+          deviation("RESPIRATORY_RATE", true),
+        ],
+        contributing: [
+          deviation("RESTING_HEART_RATE", true),
+          deviation("RESPIRATORY_RATE", true),
+        ],
+      }),
+    );
+    const fired = render(<CoincidentDeviationCard />);
+    expect(skeleton).toContain("min-h-48");
+    expect(fired).toContain("min-h-48");
   });
 
   it("renders the insufficient (building baselines) state, never an alarm", () => {
@@ -163,6 +187,9 @@ describe("<CoincidentDeviationCard>", () => {
     expect(html).not.toContain("text-destructive");
     // The provenance affordance reaches the card.
     expect(html).toContain('data-slot="provenance-explainer-trigger"');
+    // The state change is announced politely to SR users (not assertively).
+    expect(html).toContain('role="status"');
+    expect(html).not.toContain('role="alert"');
   });
 
   it("softens a fired flag to the watch tone when history is thin", () => {
diff --git a/src/components/insights/coincident-deviation-card.tsx b/src/components/insights/coincident-deviation-card.tsx
index b7a5619a1..68eb1d2f7 100644
--- a/src/components/insights/coincident-deviation-card.tsx
+++ b/src/components/insights/coincident-deviation-card.tsx
@@ -99,7 +99,13 @@ function CardShell({
       data-slot="coincident-deviation-card"
       data-state={state}
       className={cn(
-        "bg-card flex w-full min-w-0 flex-col gap-2 rounded-xl border p-4 md:p-6",
+        // `min-h` sized to the tallest realistic state (fired: 44px provenance
+        // header + the named-vitals body + the mandatory factors line). Every
+        // calmer state shares this footprint so the card — and everything below
+        // it on the overview — never shifts as the state resolves (the CLS the
+        // design pass closes). `min-h` not fixed `h`: a rare taller body still
+        // grows, it just never shrinks below the reserved height.
+        "bg-card flex min-h-48 w-full min-w-0 flex-col gap-2 rounded-xl border p-4 md:p-6",
         // At most amber — never destructive/red. The fired state borders
         // warning; every calmer state keeps the neutral card border.
         state === "fired" ? "border-warning/40" : "border-border",
@@ -116,16 +122,24 @@ function CardShell({
   );
 }
 
-/** A fixed-footprint skeleton matching the resolved card (CLS-safe). */
+/**
+ * A fixed-footprint skeleton matching the resolved card geometry exactly
+ * (CLS-safe): the same `min-h-48` shell, the same gap, and a 44px header row
+ * mirroring the provenance trigger the resolved header carries — so the card
+ * does not shift when the real content drops in.
+ */
 function CardSkeleton() {
   return (
     <div
       data-slot="coincident-deviation-card-skeleton"
       aria-hidden="true"
-      className="bg-card border-border flex w-full min-w-0 flex-col gap-3 rounded-xl border p-4 md:p-6"
+      className="bg-card border-border flex min-h-48 w-full min-w-0 flex-col gap-2 rounded-xl border p-4 md:p-6"
     >
-      <div className="bg-muted/40 h-3 w-28 rounded" />
-      <div className="bg-muted/40 h-5 w-3/4 rounded" />
+      <div className="flex h-11 items-center justify-between gap-2">
+        <div className="bg-muted/40 h-3 w-28 rounded" />
+        <div className="bg-muted/40 h-5 w-5 rounded-full" />
+      </div>
+      <div className="bg-muted/40 h-4 w-3/4 rounded" />
       <div className="bg-muted/40 h-3 w-1/2 rounded" />
     </div>
   );
@@ -247,10 +261,13 @@ export function CoincidentDeviationCard({
   }
 
   // fired — amber awareness, named vitals, possible-factors line (mandatory).
+  // `role="status"` (a polite live region, not the assertive `role="alert"`)
+  // so a screen-reader user gets the day-to-day state change in the calm tone
+  // the card keeps visually — the one state whose meaning shifts vs all-clear.
   return (
     <div className={className}>
       <CardShell state="fired" provenance={data.provenance}>
-        <div className="flex items-start gap-2">
+        <div className="flex items-start gap-2" role="status">
           <AlertTriangle
             className="text-warning mt-0.5 h-4 w-4 shrink-0"
             aria-hidden="true"