diff --git a/src/lib/analytics/__tests__/compliance.test.ts b/src/lib/analytics/__tests__/compliance.test.ts
index bb5afd5e3..33e0652d7 100644
--- a/src/lib/analytics/__tests__/compliance.test.ts
+++ b/src/lib/analytics/__tests__/compliance.test.ts
@@ -1221,6 +1221,33 @@ describe("buildComplianceDisplay — two rows, cadence-scaled windows", () => {
     expect(display.short).toBeDefined();
     expect(display.long).toBeDefined();
   });
+
+  it("a 2-day-old daily med's expected counts reflect its real age", () => {
+    // Created two days ago: the expected-dose counts must reflect ~2 days
+    // of daily doses, not the 7 / 30 a full-window walk would report. No
+    // rung clears the floor, so the selection falls back to the widest
+    // rung while keeping the counts age-accurate.
+    const schedules: ComplianceSchedule[] = [
+      {
+        windowStart: "08:00",
+        windowEnd: "09:00",
+        daysOfWeek: null,
+        rrule: "FREQ=DAILY",
+        timesOfDay: ["08:00"],
+      },
+    ];
+    const createdAt = new Date(NOW.getTime() - 2 * DAY_MS);
+    const display = buildComplianceDisplay([], schedules, ctx({ createdAt }), {
+      now: NOW,
+    });
+    // ~2 days of daily doses — nowhere near the 7 a 7-day window or the 30
+    // a 30-day window would report before the createdAt clamp.
+    expect(display.expectedShort).toBeLessThanOrEqual(3);
+    expect(display.expectedLong).toBeLessThanOrEqual(3);
+    // No rung clears the floor → widest windows still render two rows.
+    expect(display.shortDays).toBe(90);
+    expect(display.longDays).toBe(365);
+  });
 });
 
 describe("expectedSlotsBetween", () => {
@@ -1283,4 +1310,57 @@ describe("expectedSlotsBetween", () => {
     );
     expect(slots.length).toBe(0);
   });
+
+  it("clamps the window lower bound to createdAt for a young med", () => {
+    // A daily med created two days before the window's upper bound: the
+    // legacy weekday walker floors on `startsOn` (none here) but not on
+    // `createdAt`, so without the clamp this 30-day window would count
+    // ~30 days of pre-creation slots. With the clamp only the ~2 days the
+    // med actually existed emit a slot.
+    const to = new Date("2025-06-15T00:00:00Z");
+    const from = new Date(to.getTime() - 30 * DAY_MS);
+    const createdAt = new Date(to.getTime() - 2 * DAY_MS);
+    const schedules: ComplianceSchedule[] = [
+      {
+        windowStart: "08:00",
+        windowEnd: "09:00",
+        daysOfWeek: null,
+        rrule: "FREQ=DAILY",
+        timesOfDay: ["08:00"],
+      },
+    ];
+    const slots = expectedSlotsBetween(schedules, from, to, ctx({ createdAt }));
+    // Daily cadence over ~2 days → at most 3 slots, never the ~30 a full
+    // 30-day window would otherwise emit.
+    expect(slots.length).toBeLessThanOrEqual(3);
+    expect(slots.length).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(1);
+    // Every emitted slot lands at or after the creation instant.
+    for (const s of slots) {
+      expect(s.at.getTime()).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(createdAt.getTime());
+    }
+  });
+
+  it("leaves the window untouched when createdAt predates it", () => {
+    // createdAt well before `from` → the clamp is a no-op and the full
+    // window's slots survive.
+    const to = new Date("2025-06-15T00:00:00Z");
+    const from = new Date(to.getTime() - 7 * DAY_MS);
+    const schedules: ComplianceSchedule[] = [
+      {
+        windowStart: "08:00",
+        windowEnd: "09:00",
+        daysOfWeek: null,
+        rrule: "FREQ=DAILY",
+        timesOfDay: ["08:00"],
+      },
+    ];
+    const slots = expectedSlotsBetween(
+      schedules,
+      from,
+      to,
+      ctx({ createdAt: new Date("2025-01-01T00:00:00Z") }),
+    );
+    // A full week of daily doses → ~7 slots.
+    expect(slots.length).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(7);
+  });
 });
diff --git a/src/lib/analytics/compliance.ts b/src/lib/analytics/compliance.ts
index be57e63eb..ba45e05ad 100644
--- a/src/lib/analytics/compliance.ts
+++ b/src/lib/analytics/compliance.ts
@@ -340,6 +340,15 @@ export function expectedSlotCountForDay(
  * `occurrencesBetween` is inclusive of both ends; the caller passes a
  * `[from, to]` window and we sort the union of every schedule's slots so
  * a multi-schedule medication interleaves its slots in time order.
+ *
+ * v1.8.6 QA — the window lower bound is clamped to `ctx.createdAt`. The
+ * legacy weekday walker floors on `startsOn` but not on `createdAt`, so a
+ * brand-new daily med queried over a 30-day window would otherwise emit
+ * slots for every day before it existed (7/30 expected on a 2-day-old med).
+ * Clamping here keeps the expected-dose denominator — and the window
+ * selection that reads it — honest about the medication's real age. The
+ * displayed rates clamp independently via `calculateCompliance`'s
+ * `medicationCreatedAt` argument, so this only fixes the slot counts.
  */
 export function expectedSlotsBetween(
   schedules: ComplianceSchedule[],
@@ -348,12 +357,14 @@ export function expectedSlotsBetween(
   ctx: ComplianceMedicationContext,
 ): Occurrence[] {
   const recurrenceCtx = toRecurrenceCtx(ctx, "compliance-slots");
+  const effectiveFrom =
+    ctx.createdAt.getTime() > from.getTime() ? ctx.createdAt : from;
   const all: Occurrence[] = [];
   for (let i = 0; i < schedules.length; i++) {
     all.push(
       ...occurrencesBetween(
         toCanonicalSchedule(schedules[i], `compliance-slots-${i}`),
-        from,
+        effectiveFrom,
         to,
         recurrenceCtx,
       ),